50r bubble I aint never scared neither

[Bonified]

Interesting range of responses. I thought this one might polarise opinion.

What actually happened was I thought that because the other guy had busted before me, I was good for 27th, so I shoved. Villain had 97hh and flopped a flush. I'm like "oh well at least I get the cash ... " [sees 28th in Lobby] "skjdfnkvnv skjdnksn jdfnvkvmdn fvkfjdnd,mf vfv". So that was a lesson learned. But when I worked it out, I think it's still a shove anyway, or at least, for it to be a shove, we need to be 57% against his range if the BB folds, let's call it 60% just in case the BB wakes up with something huge. And I can't construct a sensible open-raising range that includes 97s but is > 40% against AQs. Frankly in the villain's position I would have been tempted to raise with any 2, and I think a lot of other players would too.

Without going through the whole calculation, 27th is $320, the total prize pool $46,150 and there are 1.458 million chips in play. My basic premise is that if we make the money, this is worth $320 + (our chips / total chips) * (prize pool - (27 * 320)). Given that even if we call and win, we'll only have 2.5% of the chips in play, I think that chip EV ~ $ EV after dishing out the $320s. The real question is, is this assumption valid ? I see no reason why it isn't, and I've done some Monte Carlo simulation this morning that backs it up too.