Clev to win AFCN

[psuasskicker]

Take a look at the Browns remaining sched:
@StL, Sea, @Pitt, @Balt, Hou, @AZ, @NYJ, Buff, @Cin, SF

Compared to Pitt:
@Cin, Balt, Clev, @NYJ, Mia, Cin, @NE, Jax, @StL, @Balt

Balt:
@Pitt, Cinci, Clev, @SD, NE, Indi, @Mia, @Sea, Pitt

Cinci:
Pitt, @Buff, @Balt, AZ, Tenn, @Pitt, StL, @SF, Clev, @Mia

Clev's schedule is far easier than anyone else's, and they're not all that bad a team overall. Their losses were final seconds vs. Oak, and vs. Pitt (starting Frye) and @NE (duh). Their schedule is only tough in that they've got six out of ten on the road, but a 7-3 finish certainly looks doable.

Pitt is clearly in the driver's seat, but have it much tougher with NE and Jax still ahead of them, plus two vs. the Ravens who they played terribly against last year.

Balt is 4-3 vs. their opponents which are 13-32. Their second half opponents are 32-24. It's hard for me to imagine this team finishing better than 9-7 this year. That might be generous.

Cinci is awful, and have some tough games ahead of them. Between @Buff, @Balt, Tenn, Pitt twice, and Clev, they aren't gonna lose three of those? They're done.

Clev to win AFCN
TS just had 7 contracts at 6 and 30 at 8 and I bought them all. Risk $28.12 to win $370. I'm thinking of adding more here as well. Looking around, seems like many sites have this somewhere in the range of +900 to +1000.

How likely is Clev to win the division? Really <10%??? I can't see that. I've gotta think this is more likely around 12% or 13%. 15% with injuries? Between Cinci not being a good team, and Baltimore sucking this season it honestly looks to me like a two team race. Tons of value in the fact that Balt is floating in many books around 20% to 25% to win the division, and I don't think it's anywhere close to that.

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