99 makes OESD in big pot

djshawk · #1 08-30-2007, 06:30 AM

I don't know if I played this right or not, I don't think I did but would appreciate comments. Does my push have any FE? Will I only get called by better hands etc? I don't really know what things I should be thinking about when it comes to making decisions like this.

CO is LAG 73/16 over 35 hands. Weirdly enough Button is 73/13 over 35 hands too.

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $52.30
hero: $62.90
CO: $93.93
Button: $60.40
SB: $31.57
BB: $15.06

Pre-flop: (6 players) hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, hero raises to $2, CO raises to $3.5, Button calls, 2 folds, hero calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($11.25, 3 players)
hero checks, CO bets $10.22, Button calls, hero raises all-in $59.4

Buzz-cp · #2 08-30-2007, 11:27 AM

You need to look beyond preflop stats in order to decide here--i.e. you need look at WTSD & folds-to-flop-bet, and also reads. If they are this loose preflop, what have they been showing down? A villain may be pretty laggy and then play fit or fold with their junk. With button overcalling, I would like to muck. Our 2-outer isn't good, and our OESD is not great because a Q gives AK the bigger straight. Granted both villains are wide, but it's unlikely that both will fold, and a better hand is probably always calling.

JavaNut · #3 08-30-2007, 03:09 PM

The main problem is that only 7s are good outs for sure. Of course it is unlikely but if both villains call your push, you get somewhere short of 3-1 with only 4 outs twice which is not good.

If there is a read that says they will fold AK with a gutshot in this position with these odds, then the odds of winning when called and the folding equity will make this worth while.

Really not an easy situation to asses outs/folding equity.