Weather Effects in Football

[KUJustin]

Does anyone here have some insight or data into how weather affects a football game? I'm specifically curious about soggy conditions and rain versus dry conditions.

Obviously, there's a ton of "conventional wisdom" out there, but it seems like the conventional wisdom is wrong a little more often than it's right.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

I just read an article which tracked the run/pass breakdown by month, and there were no significant differences at all

I would also guess that bad fields brings teams closer together - good teams prefer good weather

[Jack of Arcades]

Well, dome teams are usually terrible in cold weather games.

[johnnylovescandy]

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Well, dome teams are usually terrible in cold weather games.

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I've heard NFL players contest this point, since many of them played in cold weather often & regularly enough. Most dome teams just suck, regardless of weather. Indy last year was obvious exception, along with 1998 Vikes & Falcons

[dlk9s]

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I would also guess that bad fields brings teams closer together

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I am picturing two football teams cuddled up by the fire on a wet, cold, gloomy day sipping hot chocolate with marshmallows and whipped cream.

[UATrewqaz]

I would agree that the better teams would want better weather.

Bad weather promotes unusual mistakes and higher variance, which benefits the worse team usually.

Bad weather also really slows the game down typically, which benefits the slower team more, because while it slows both teams down, it slows down the faster team more so.

[Gregatron]

I agree with the consensus about weather = variance, thereby helping the less talented team.

Another factor: muddy and rainy conditions tend to favor defenses, and hurt the rushing game more than the passing game. It's easier to pass block relative to run block when it's muddy, and fumbles are more common in rain/mud, and while dropped passes are as well, the consequences are obviously not as severe.

[KUJustin]

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Another factor: muddy and rainy conditions tend to favor defenses, and hurt the rushing game more than the passing game. It's easier to pass block relative to run block when it's muddy, and fumbles are more common in rain/mud, and while dropped passes are as well, the consequences are obviously not as severe.

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I thought this was the case, but you hear the casual fan say the opposite VERY frequently.

[Gregatron]

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I thought this was the case, but you hear the casual fan say the opposite VERY frequently.

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God you are so right. One game I attended in the student section of Tiger Stadium was Oregon State a few years ago. I had what had to have been the stupidest LSU fan ever behind me (and trust me, we have some stupid fans!) -- loud mouthed SOB. It was POURING. I mean we were all soaked in the stadium, and lightening delayed the game, but no one went anywhere. We just stayed there, getting soaked... waiting. (There were several field rushers doing Pete Roses at midfield, including one streaker!)

Anyway, I remember him saying "this weather is PERFECT for us. We are a running team!" That was so stupid on so many levels... he drove me nuts. He would yell [censored] like "F*ck you Marcus Randell!" And "hey Saban, get Randall out of there -- he obviously doesn't have the leadership." What a hell does that even mean?

Thankfully he left early because we were down a couple of scores, and we pulled out a crazy win where the evil Staruday night South Louisiana voodoo swamp demons made OSU's kicker miss 3 xps!

EDIT: Only fitting that Marcus Randall ran for the winning TD. Not a great LSU QB, but a good kid. I hope that idiot felt good and stupid... but he probably didn't, and likely still thinks he is a football genius.

[CieloAzor]

Concerning statistics about dome teams and warm weather teams (Tampa Bay especially) playing poorly below certain temperatures...you have to remember that regardless of climate, these are all road games to begin with. I don't know if there's any value in those stats, but I'm inclined to believe playing on the road is responsible for most of those streaks that are quoted, and variance plays a large role as well.