theoretical hu question

[WillyT]

Oh, right. Oops. I meant to put 1/3 in the original post.

Your expected equity is greater than 1/3 about 66% of the time on the flop against a random hand. One typo and then a follow up assuming the typo was correct :P

I just used propokertools simulator.


-Bill

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
if our two options are either a) check calling to showdown,
or b) folding at some point before showdown

what % of the time is check calling to showdown MORE profitalbe than folding at some point?

[/ QUOTE ]

Better phrased now, I'd say 80/20 call down/fold at some point just off the top of my head. Put another way I am guessing around 20% of the time the board will come so bad for me that I'll ditch it somewhere.

-DeathDonkey

[YertleTurtle]

I would have said 70/30 but not a big difference.

YT

[StellarWind]

You need 2.5/7 = 35.71% to call down a hand based on the flop.

Missed monotone flops are close cases that come down to straight potential. K93 = 37.1%, QJ4 = 36.0%, and QT6 = 35.4%.

Two-tone unpaired flops are playable except for a few worst cases. 987 two-suited is 35.5% assuming you have both wrong suits. If you have a blocker against the second board suit your odds improve to 35.6% which is still a hair short. But JT9 2-suited is 35.77% which is safe even without a blocker.

Rainbow unpaired flops seem to be completely safe. Even a horror story like 765 is almost 37%.

Paired boards are very favorable. 887 two-suited is about as awful as a paired flop is going to get but it's still almost 44%.

So the initial conclusion is that it is usually correct to call the flop. The exceptions are offsuit monotone flops that are at least moderately coordinated plus a very few terrible two-suited flops.

But this is actually misleading. QT6 monotone is only 35.4% but folding the flop is still wrong. It's clearly better to take a card and then fold if the roof caves in on the turn.

I'm not sure it's ever wrong to call the flop. 765 monotone (30.2%) seems like the worst case if someone wants to investigate.

The turn is the primary crisis point where most valid folds happen.

River folds only seem to be correct in two rare cases: 1) your pair is counterfeited and a chop is unlikely or 2) the board offers both a 1-card flush and two 1-card straights.

[geormiet]

thank you, this is what I was looking for.

Did you just pokerstove a bunch of different flops?

[WillyT]

yeah, you just guess the boards that would be bad for your hand and check'm out. then change things a bit and see how the equity changes.

I did a bunch of flops, didn't mess around with any turn cards though. Monotone straight boards that aren't of your suit are way the worst for you.

-Bill

p.s. I can't speak for Stellar, but I'd lay pretty good odds that that's what he did too.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
thank you, this is what I was looking for.

Did you just pokerstove a bunch of different flops?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.

[johnnyrocket]

[ QUOTE ]
I am bb with 22. The sb, who raises every hand, raises, and I call. The small blind will bet every street when checked to.

Is it always correct to go to showdown? Are there boards where 22 doesn't have enough equity to call a bet on a certain street?

[/ QUOTE ]

how about 22 on an AAKK board, thats a fold lol, otherwise this is a statistical question that can be done running pokerstove, its not correct all the time cuz he isnt raising 100% of his hands PF, only a certain amount