Money bubble: $6.50, 18-man turbo

[OrrLives]

Blinds 200/400 + 25 ante

5 players left, 4 make the money.
Hero is short stack with ~1400, but there is one other player with ~1600.

Hero in SB with Q5o (~1200 after posting SB). All fold to Hero.
BB has ~3000 after posting BB. Hero?

Is this a super-easy push? With any two cards? What if the other short stack has ~400 chips left, should I wait until he busts? In this situation, my usual mindset is to shoot for 1st place, making a push automatic with all but the very worst hands.

If I push, BB will have ~2:1 odds and probably will call. If I fold, I will get 3 hands in which in which someone may bust or I may get an AX, a PP or paint.

[earck]

I push, M less than 2, etc...

[OrrLives]

[ QUOTE ]
I push, M less than 2, etc...

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you push any two cards?

What if one of the other players had less than 1 BB left? Would it be better to hold off and hopefully make at least ~2 buy-ins in 4th place.

[Super Villain]

what are the reads on the players?

Are they super nitty and will wait until someone busts and or they are forced all in? (I see these plahyers a lot at this level.) Or are they resigned to their fate?

Even if villain is willing to go w/ any 2 i think Q high is good enough. Any 2 is a different story, I would probably drop the bottom 1/3 off of any two cards and open jam the top 2/3.

Overall w/ no other info the push looks fine IMO.

[earck]

Someone may have to check my math I am new at this.

Lets assume he calls with any pocket pair, any ace, KQ, and KJ.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.214% 27.77% 00.45% 1643080668 26545554.00 { 72o }
Hand 1: 71.786% 71.34% 00.45% 4221550848 26545554.00 { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, A2o+, KJo+ }

Your 1400 + BB's 1400 expected call makes the pot 2800. 27o wont quite make the cut at 2:1.

But with as little as 45o you have the equity

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.451% 32.97% 00.48% 1951142712 28422444.00 { 54o }
Hand 1: 66.549% 66.07% 00.48% 3909735024 28422444.00 { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, A2o+, KJo+ }


So not any any two cards but virtually any two for this exercise, also I do not think you should play to outlast this player, play for the win.


Edit: Like i said i could be off on my math but it looks right.

[Wish]

Your math is right, sorta, but it doesn't include the fold-equity you get from shoving. The other thing that looks wrong to me (and there's a possibility I might be mistaken) is that your calling range for villain is way, way, way too tight. Basically, the way you did it, you assume the villain always has a hand this strong, and always calls (which, I suppose, is true if he always has a pair, ace, or strong king).

[earck]

Well i just made that case, if you account for fold equity or if you think he calls even lighter than KJo+ then I think you can make a case for pushing any two.