Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire - Page 2

Dynasty · #11 11-21-2007, 10:06 PM

Are most of the Ron Paul supporters on here college students who are surrounded by a fair # of other Paul supporters? In middle America, very few people care about Ron Paul and very few more are going to start caring.

Paul is polling well enough in New Hampshire that he might crack double-digits. The same should be true in Nevada.

Money2Burn · #12 11-21-2007, 10:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are most of the Ron Paul supporters on here college students who are surrounded by a fair # of other Paul supporters? In middle America, very few people care about Ron Paul and very few more are going to start caring.

Paul is polling well enough in New Hampshire that he might crack double-digits. The same should be true in Nevada.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aparently middle America cares about Huckabee.

Religious fundamentalism here we come!

Cumulonimbus · #13 11-21-2007, 10:21 PM

gaaaawaeresrfasdcs people are dumb

DVaut1 · #14 11-21-2007, 10:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Wasn't someone offering me 1:1 on ron paul getting 8% of the vote in New Hampshire a few months ago? I'd love to take that bet, whoever you were.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was MPK, and the numbers 7% NH/5% Iowa. I was going to back MPK because I thought it was a pretty good bet at the time. I wouldn't put any money on that at this point.

I still don't think he'll beat these by much, but clearly since July (when the original bet was offered) Paul has drastically exceeded expectations and gained momentum.

RCP poll averages have Paul at 6.8% in New Hampshire, 4.5% in Iowa. I suspect he'll end up punting in one of those states (Iowa) and pouring resources in the other (NH). So if I had to bet now, I suspect he'd be close to 5% in Iowa and would beat 7% in NH.

But yes, had you taken the bet in July, it would have looked pretty good right about now.

JackWhite · #15 11-21-2007, 10:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Aparently middle America cares about Huckabee.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want to hijack this thread, but Huckabee should get his own thread since he is surging in Iowa. However, he is starting to get more scrutiny as he ascends in the polls. His ethics as Governor of Arkansas are being questioned, and the Club For Growth has been hammering him on his record on taxes. However, I discovered that he has received the endorsements of Ted Nugent, Ric Flair, and Chuck Norris. That should put him over the top, imo.

maxtower · #16 11-21-2007, 10:31 PM

Thats what I don't understand. I don't know anyone who has even heard of Huckabee, and yet, he is polling ahead of RP. I admit there must be some bias in my circle, but I certainly believe RP has made bigger waves than Huckabee around the country.
intrade.com lets you bet on politics I believe. They have RP at about 6% right now. If you are betting with Iron for 14%, you might as well take the 6% too. If the trade rises to 12% you'll double up.

DVaut1 · #17 11-21-2007, 10:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are most of the Ron Paul supporters on here college students who are surrounded by a fair # of other Paul supporters? In middle America, very few people care about Ron Paul and very few more are going to start caring.

Paul is polling well enough in New Hampshire that he might crack double-digits. The same should be true in Nevada.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aparently middle America cares about Huckabee.

Religious fundamentalism here we come!

[/ QUOTE ]

Brownback dropping out and Tancredo doing nothing of relevance has left Huckabee the default choice of the conservative Christian crowd. It should have been expected that bloc would coalesce their support around a candidate. Huckabee is that guy. He'll be in the race a while, because of the general dissatisfaction with Romney/Giuliani among those voters; the ABC/WashPo poll that came out recently which demonstrated the Huckabee surge was startling because of how many voters have committed to Huckabee and apparently won't be changing their mind:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews

"But almost half of Huckabee's supporters (48 percent) said they would definitely vote for him in January and only a quarter said there was a good chance that they would change their minds before the caucuses. In contrast, just 29 percent of Romney's backers said they would definitely vote for him, while 42 percent said there was a good chance that they could vote for someone else at the caucuses.

The enthusiasm among Huckabee supporters was striking, particularly in a year in which Republicans have been considerably dissatisfied with the field of candidates. Half of those who now back the former Arkansas governor said they are very enthusiastic about him, compared with 28 percent of Romney's backers."

DVaut1 · #18 11-21-2007, 10:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thats what I don't understand. I don't know anyone who has even heard of Huckabee, and yet, he is polling ahead of RP. I admit there must be some bias in my circle, but I certainly believe RP has made bigger waves than Huckabee around the country.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cumulonimbus · #19 11-21-2007, 10:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thats what I don't understand. I don't know anyone who has even heard of Huckabee, and yet, he is polling ahead of RP. I admit there must be some bias in my circle, but I certainly believe RP has made bigger waves than Huckabee around the country.
intrade.com lets you bet on politics I believe. They have RP at about 6% right now. If you are betting with Iron for 14%, you might as well take the 6% too. If the trade rises to 12% you'll double up.

[/ QUOTE ]

watch this, Huckabee v Paul at one of the debates. Paul speaks logic, Huckabee speaks powerful words and rhetoric. It's just silly.

TomCollins · #20 11-21-2007, 10:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thats what I don't understand. I don't know anyone who has even heard of Huckabee, and yet, he is polling ahead of RP. I admit there must be some bias in my circle, but I certainly believe RP has made bigger waves than Huckabee around the country.
intrade.com lets you bet on politics I believe. They have RP at about 6% right now. If you are betting with Iron for 14%, you might as well take the 6% too. If the trade rises to 12% you'll double up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Polling at 14% in NH doesn't mean that RP has a 14% chance of winning the Republican Nomination. I'd love to take 17/3 odds against RP winning the nomination. IMO its probably close to 7% that he wins the nomination right now.