10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr

[TxRedMan]

Villain is a Bellagio regular, Jay. I'd never played with him before but had been on his left for about three hours when this hand occured. I haven't been out of line and neither has he. The only hand I've shown down in a big pot was the NF on an a-high paired board against an EP raiser where the a-3-3 flop was checked around and I just called his turn bet when I made my hand and value-bet the blank river when it was checked to me.

We're seven handed when this hand takes place, and I noticed that he had switched gears and was playing a little faster than earlier.


He limps UTG (i thought he was in the BB) and I raise QQ to $100 UTG+1. Folds back to him and he raises to $400. He has about $1700 behind after the raise and I cover. I call.


Flop

10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


He shoves $1700 into $800.


A couple of things; I'm sure he thinks I wont flat call with AA or KK pf very often, so he probably assumes I have TT-AK. After a few hours of play and a little discussion he probably assumes I'm capable of folding a big hand. In live poker huge overbets are more often a nut hand than a bluff, but he seemed capable of putting me on QQ-JJ and expecting me to lay it down to this board/action.


Thoughts on preflop appreciated, as well as the flop decision.




-Tex

[SlowHabit]

I don't think I can fold QQ here because I'm curious to what he has (considering he's a regular). If he has it, then he has it.

Also, I don't think he would play AA this way since live players weren't be afraid of a turn/river ace. But then again, what a freaking weird way to play KK.

My head is asplode thinking. Flip a coin. If you have the Qh, then flip a two-heads coin.

[LAgambol]

does he have a shaved head? this is almost always a fold unless u got a sick read. this line is Aces like 90% of the time.

[BobboFitos]

once you call pf, the flop is an easy call. you can't consider anything different actually. only thing id think is to fold pf to the l/r, but i generally wouldnt do that either.

[jfish]

i think it is fair to say that if he is shoving hands that you are ahead of, they are hands that have decent equity. namely flush draws and 2 overcards.

giving him a looser shoving range acounting for some pf semibluffs:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.425% 45.85% 01.57% 83070 2850.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 52.575% 51.00% 01.57% 92400 2850.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah2h, QhJh, AKo }

giving him a tight shoving range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.539% 26.95% 02.59% 29610 2850.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 70.461% 67.87% 02.59% 74580 2850.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah2h, QhJh }


which ranges from slightly +ev to fairly -ev. i think its a fold because of the positions preflop, and the fact that he will seriously never show up with like 56ss or any hand where you have >70% equity really.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
i think it is fair to say that if he is shoving hands that you are ahead of, they are hands that have decent equity. namely flush draws and 2 overcards.

giving him a looser shoving range acounting for some pf semibluffs:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.425% 45.85% 01.57% 83070 2850.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 52.575% 51.00% 01.57% 92400 2850.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah2h, QhJh, AKo }

giving him a tight shoving range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.539% 26.95% 02.59% 29610 2850.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 70.461% 67.87% 02.59% 74580 2850.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah2h, QhJh }


which ranges from slightly +ev to fairly -ev. i think its a fold because of the positions preflop, and the fact that he will seriously never show up with like 56ss or any hand where you have >70% equity really.

[/ QUOTE ]the 'tight range' u gave should be the 'loose range'

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
once you call pf, the flop is an easy call. you can't consider anything different actually. only thing id think is to fold pf to the l/r, but i generally wouldnt do that either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rob, I disagree with this completely, and in reference I'm going to use one of the best posts on poker I have ever seen, Gigabet's "Almost there with Sucess and Failure" (linked at the end). Poker is a game of incomplete information and he who is the best at analyzing bits and pieces of it as they come in and responding correctly - at the end - wins. So we get limp-raised pre-flop and some warning bells should be going off, but QQ is still the 3rd nuts so okay, not enough info to shove or fold, lets call.

Flop comes x,x,x and he shoves for twice the pot AI. Assuming that he's not limp-raising with JJ- and not doing this too often with naked A,Ko there's simply no way we're ahead here 66%+ of the time since when he's behind he's got 12 outs+ and when we are behind we're drawing virtually dead. And we're usually behind.

If you take another step back and think what your hand looks like to him (given your history) then you'll realize it's easily QQ+ so no, he's not expecting you to fold here very often. So fold. I realize I'm making a lot of assumptions here but, again, given the description in OP of your 3-hour history and the dynamics so far, I think they will be accurate far more often than not.

Kirk

PS. Gigabet's "Almost there with Success and Failure"

[Lefort]

Kirk, stop re-wording my posts and making them sound better.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
Rob, I disagree with this completely, and in reference I'm going to use one of the best posts on poker I have ever seen

[/ QUOTE ]

at this point, I was expecting you to link to the hand where samo called some huge reraise preflop with KK and then folded on a dry flop... and his logic was about the same as what you're saying in your post ("he knows I have AA/KK here and doesn't expect me to fold it, therefore he has me beat")

everyone told him he was nuts though =p

[IShearSheep]

I am assuming this is Jay with the shaved head and Buddy Holly glasses. Preflop this is a tossup given the stack sizes and utg limp rr. Usually AA KK but you have position and you said he has been playing a little fast so ok.
I can't imagine him shoving AA here on the flop because he has to put you on jj-kk ak here and why would he want you to fold that on this flop. KK would be a little odd to shove here also because he prob doesnt put you on AA so same concept you have 2 outs or 3 outs.
I could see him doing this with akh or aqh and possibly jj from my experience with him.
I don't know seems like toss up but the fact that it is 7 handed, he has been playing fast, and he thinks you are capable of laying down big hands probably swings this towards a pretty easy call. If he has aa kk nh.