***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread*** - Page 19

THAY3R · #**181** 11-28-2007, 07:49 PM

Rwperu,

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They now need Dukes to stay out of trouble, Baldelli to stay healthy, and Gomes to be good.

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Why are you saying this?

They need ONE of those THREE players to become a serviceable Right Fielder.

rwperu34 · #**182** 11-28-2007, 07:50 PM

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I think I'm higher on Garza and lower on Young then you. Maybe I'm weighting their performance this past year a little too much or something... Young has a long way to go (both at the plate and in the field) before he is an average corner outfielder.

/edit and I don't get the whole "until Plouffe is ready" thing. His upside is basically Bartlett.

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Yes, you are higher on Garza and lower on Young. Put those guys on a range of outcomes, then what do you think? Young's ceiling is higher, because his ceiling is best RF in the game, and that's more valuable than the best SP in the game. Don't forget to factor in the 20% of the time Garza's career will be affected by a major injury, compared to the 5% for Delmon. You're looking at it as Garza is better now, and even that's arguable.

I don't want this to get into a debate over who's better now or even who has more future value, but when talking ceiling, I hope you can see why Plouffe's is much better than Bartlett.

gehrig · #**183** 11-28-2007, 07:55 PM

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You're looking at it as Garza is better now, and even that's arguable.

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man wtf

uzr has young at 15 runs below average in the field last year. VORP has young at 5 runs above replacement and 16 runs below average last year. young is seriously terrible. dude is not going to turn into miguel cabrera.

rwperu34 · #**184** 11-28-2007, 07:59 PM

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young was really really bad last year. a lot of the shine is gone there. i know pecota doesn't think too much of him now. maybe he gets good by the time he's expensive just in time for the twins to trade him.

harris is bad enough defensively that he doesn't really have any value. bartlett is significantly better.

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What is this Young is really really bad talk? He was a little below average as a 21yo in the bigs. Not only can guys with tools like him take giant leaps forward, they are expected to. Even PECOTA projected a 28 point jump in OPS from age 21-22, which equates to 8 points in EQA. Obviously there is risk that he won't become a superstar, but the chances of him not being at least average over the next five years is on the low side. This is basically the Rays selling low on a five tool 22yo RF after one bad year.

rwperu34 · #**185** 11-28-2007, 08:04 PM

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Rwperu,

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They now need Dukes to stay out of trouble, Baldelli to stay healthy, and Gomes to be good.

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Why are you saying this?

They need ONE of those THREE players to become a serviceable Right Fielder.

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They need one in RF and one at DH.

rwperu34 · #**186** 11-28-2007, 08:08 PM

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You're looking at it as Garza is better now, and even that's arguable.

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young is seriously terrible. dude is not going to turn into miguel cabrera.

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Is this some kind of level?

SL__72 · #**187** 11-28-2007, 08:19 PM

I just find Young's walkrate over the last two years to be terribly alarming.

Thremp · #**188** 11-28-2007, 08:19 PM

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You're looking at it as Garza is better now, and even that's arguable.

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young is seriously terrible. dude is not going to turn into miguel cabrera.

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Is this some kind of level?

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Jose Tabata caliber talent obv.

rwperu34 · #**189** 11-28-2007, 08:27 PM

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I just find Young's walkrate over the last two years to be terribly alarming.

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Obviously it's a red flag and Young is not the sure fire HOFer that some people made him out to be. Still, thanks to his tools, he's still got a bunch of superduperstar at the top of his range, it's just no lock. His floor is pretty high also. For example, his EV is still greater than guys like Adam Jones and Jay Bruce while those guys EV is greater than Garza.

Thremp · #**190** 11-28-2007, 08:42 PM

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I just find Young's walkrate over the last two years to be terribly alarming.

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Obviously it's a red flag and Young is not the sure fire HOFer that some people made him out to be. Still, thanks to his tools, he's still got a bunch of superduperstar at the top of his range, it's just no lock. His floor is pretty high also. For example, his EV is still greater than guys like Adam Jones and Jay Bruce while those guys EV is greater than Garza.

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Meh. EV isn't that important with prospects. Also you seem fixated on "toolsy" guys. Not dudes who play baseball really good. Which seems a much better indicator of success.