A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio

[mike l.]

this one got different responses from death donkey, justin a, gonores, and ggbman as to the right play. also it's a little funny for reasons youll soon see:

i am dealt Ad8d in the bb in my first hand in a 300-600 7 handed game at bellagio. utg, KMS from commerce who has been playing bellagio every day all summer, raises. everyone calls including me. family pot.

the flop is Kd4d4s. the sb bets out, i raise (?), kms cold calls two, everyone else folds (!), sb calls.

the turn is Jh. checked around.

the river is 3d. sb checks, i bet, kms raises, sb folds, i ....... ?

[baronzeus]

seems like an easy 3bet. call a 4bet i think, but he really has no hands you lose to.

he probably has QJdd, QTdd, or JTdd. nothing else makes sense.

[G_Dollaz]

I'm 3 betting here... what can we lose to, 44 or KK that wanted someone 2 get a free card 2 catch a flush?... doesn't make any sense.... I agree w/ baronzeus 100%

[Josh W]

mike -

I disagree with the others so far. You should just call the river raise.

I think that if he flops a flushdraw, he'll threebet to put pressure on a late position King (I mean, is KJ gonna wanna call 3 cold on that flop???), put pressure on the SB, and to potentially take a free card. With two others already expressing interest in the pot (the SB and you), threebetting a flushdraw is nice, especially if it gets KMS the button.

Then, if he only cold-called the flop with a flushdraw, he'd also potentially bet the turn when it's checked to him. Now he'd most certainly have a pair with his flushdraw or an OESD with his flush draw.

Thus, the chance that he both 1) smoothcalled the flop and 2) checked the turn is small.

Now, throw in the fact that 7 people saw the flop. It seems quasi likely (this is shady reasoning, but likely has some merit) that SOMEBODY must have been dealt a king. I really think KMS has KK here.

Would he check the turn with Kings full? Perhaps. If you have a hand like 77 or something, you'd quite likely fold to a turn bet, and that would be disasterous for him. Obviously he's risking losing tons of potential profit if you have a 4, so I'm in no way saying that he's guaranteed to have KK.

If you threebet, do you fold to his 4-bet? Folding the nutflush on the river closing the action when getting 17:1 is tough to do. So, I'll assume that you won't make this fold. Thus you raising the river is only correct if you are ahead 2/3 of the time. I think you are ahead about 50% of the time.

Call.

Josh

[MrGatorade]

Mike-

You said this was your first hand. You have no information on how people are playing and how the game is flowing. You have the nut flush and no table image yet. I believe that you should simply call his raise on the river with the intention to advertise to the table your hand no matter if it won or not. By doing this you might establish a certain "Cautious" image. With your style of play and you aggressiveness, other players at the table might get the idea that you wont re-raise without the absolute nuts and might induce some folds on the turn or river until they understand your a raging maniac =)

-MrGatorade

(And against me in our 1-2 games you would 8 bet me because I suck) =)

[OnkelHotte]

100% agree to dollaz! This is a no brainer 3 bet in every game of the whole world. Does anybody think Villain checks behind a full house or quads on the turn? If he does, he plays poor, gets on more bet with line in this special hand against us Hero and misses much value in all other situations!

[Scary_Tiger]

I think a closer river decision would be you 3-bet, he 4-bets, Hero ???. A turn check for a hand that beats you makes no sense.

[Paluka]

Three bets!

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]

Thus you raising the river is only correct if you are ahead 2/3 of the time. I think you are ahead about 50% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Come on. There is a 50% chance that KMS has KK or 44 (or JJ & 33)? Checking those behind on the turn would be so terrible. Mike is ahead here an overwhelming majority of the time.

I would rather 5-bet his 4-bet than not 3-bet here.

[mike l.]

mike that was really well thought out, good post.