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#2
09-17-2007, 05:27 PM
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Re: What?
The size of the donk bet worries me somewhat, but I'd be willing to get it in here. I assume an unknown would raise AK, AA, and 99 preflop to punish the limper, and would just as likely checkraise the remaining strong made hands that he would have limp/called (not that an unknown always does it, but that would be my expectation). I would call for a couple reasons: keep the donk behind you in the pot and encourage CO to bet again on the turn with a worse hand.
This is a tough spot, though. Folding has to be a pretty viable option (if not the best option). 
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#3
09-17-2007, 05:53 PM
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Re: What?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Here's what my thought process would probably look like 1) Look at pot/stack ratio and our hand Ratio is < 5:1, pretty much excellent for a TP2K kind of hand -> We can felt it 2) Look at villains ranges and board texture Pretty drawy board with two possible gutshots and a FD out there. The As makes the FD unlikely to be to the nuts (I don't think it matters at these levels since flush = nuts) We don't really know much about the ranges of villains. 64/3 can have close to any two depending on how liberal he calls when his limp was raised (some people never fold once they have invested money etc), note that CO got good odds to call once MP had called so his range should be a little wider No VPIP/PFR% for the other guy and we don't know if they raise any PP or limp the small ones. I'm willing to put both of them on a) Small PPs say 22-66/77 b) Suited connectors of sorts c) Ax and Axs hands where x < T/J (as they usually should have raised, especially CO) b) Any two suited cards for some villains CO is less likely to have Ax or a PP here if he is a good player since he'd probably raise that hoping to pick up blinds+limpers money Small PPs are least likely for both since most people tend to raise them Options: 1) Raise the donkbet (minraise + push on turn if called) - my usual line since donkbet = weakish middle pair kind of hands a lot of times (assuming non thinking player). However if I have no other read a pot sized donkbet into a 3 way pot is highly unusual. The usual weakish ones are between 1/2 and 2/3 the pot 2) Call - I'd do this only to bet if a spade comes on the turn. Big donk bet on 2 flush boards seems to mean "ZOMG I have a hand and don't want to get drawn out on". If you have a read that villain is afraid of flushes hitting and weakish + able to lay a hand down you can go this route. If the third player calls as well I probably just check/give up on the turn What beats us: 55 (99 is unlikely as he would have raised PF, 95 is unlikely ubless suited), A5, A9 (AK is unlikely since he would have raised) What we want villain to have: A2, A3, A4, A6, A7, A8, AT, AJ Also possible: 3s2s, 4s3s, 7s6s, 8s7s, 9sXs note: With a pot to stack ratio of < 5:1 I really don't mind felting this. Once we call we may or may not be commited anyways [/ QUOTE ] tl;dr [/ QUOTE ] Not to derail the thread, and maybe I'm missing a joke (no surprise), but I disagree....I think the responses like this are awesome, as it shows the thinking that goes into the decision, not just the decision. I wish there were more responses like that one. /hijack
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#5
09-18-2007, 02:19 AM
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Re: What?
Intersting hand ama, pretty common and always tough spot.
I haven't read Flynn/Mehta yet. Could someone give me a quick explanation of why we'd want to felt this?: [ QUOTE ] 1) Look at pot/stack ratio and our hand Ratio is < 5:1, pretty much excellent for a TP2K kind of hand -> We can felt it [/ QUOTE ]
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#7
09-17-2007, 07:46 PM
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Re: What?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd call once and see what happens. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] SB: $57.95 BB: $85.41 UTG: $23.65 MP: $89.67 CO: $58.39 Hero (BTN): $50.00 Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players) UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, 2 folds, MP calls $2.50, CO calls $2.50 Flop: ($9.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) MP checks, <font color="red">CO bets $10.00</font>, Hero calls $10, MP folds. Turn: ($39.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">CO bets $15.00</font>, Hero? [/ QUOTE ]
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#8
09-17-2007, 07:54 PM
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Re: What?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'd call once and see what happens. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] SB: $57.95 BB: $85.41 UTG: $23.65 MP: $89.67 CO: $58.39 Hero (BTN): $50.00 Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players) UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, 2 folds, MP calls $2.50, CO calls $2.50 Flop: ($9.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) MP checks, <font color="red">CO bets $10.00</font>, Hero calls $10, MP folds. Turn: ($39.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">CO bets $15.00</font>, Hero? [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Exactly, everyone who wants to call once and hope for the best needs to come up with a line for this turn, because calling the flop and folding this turn is unacceptable.
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#9
09-17-2007, 07:59 PM
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Re: What?
Its not. You made that turn up. Its not going to be the line this villain takes. If you say it is, then prove it.
Too many people think calling here is just wrong because thats what they've been told. As much as I hate it the correct play is to call and re-evaluate on the turn.
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