Average Speed XVII Game Thread

[fmxda]

I agree with Dustin that fnord is a decent lynch, simply because I like all the possible final 3's of dustin/scott dustin/supine and scott/supine

But fnord has been clearing himself somewhat in my eyes and I'm still very convinced that supine is the wolfiest person left.

Dustin, the worst case scenario final 3 for you if we lynch supine is scott/fnord, and that should be a pretty easy fnordvote, the way you've been pushing him?

[DustinG]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with Dustin that fnord is a decent lynch, simply because I like all the possible final 3's of dustin/scott dustin/supine and scott/supine

But fnord has been clearing himself somewhat in my eyes and I'm still very convinced that supine is the wolfiest person left.

Dustin, the worst case scenario final 3 for you if we lynch supine is scott/fnord, and that should be a pretty easy fnordvote, the way you've been pushing him?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) I feel very good about Supine being a villager and thats something we're going to need to discuss today

2) There is no guarantee that I'll be alive tomorrow

3) If Fnord is a guaranteed lynch tomorrow it would be insane not to lynch him today

[fmxda]

fnord is only a guaranteed lynch for me if we kill supine and he turns up villager

[DustinG]

[ QUOTE ]
fnord is only a guaranteed lynch for me if we kill supine and he turns up villager

[/ QUOTE ]

you're worried if we dont lynch supine today, that we never will (or that I wont in the final 3)

make your case against him

I know hes had some shady moments this game, but for him to play the way hes played takes skill and confidence

and this is his first ever long game- so much of his posting doesn't fit with him being a newbie wolf

[DustinG]

also,

what are the things Fnords done that makes him seem clear to you?

I'll admit that he was a little more 'all-over-the-place' yesterday than I would have thought he would be yesterday, and I also found it a little strange that he would vote you after Fish did when it should have been pretty clear that you weren't getting lynched yesterday.

but I don't feel like his posting has been very carefree at all this game. He's made several of his "for the good of village" Fnord-wolf posts. I thought his posting the night Bravos got killed was a little off- like he knew he should be saying something but didn't quite know what....

[fnord_too]

dustin,

you have made it clear that you have fnord blinders on. I have no doubt you will get me lynched. I simply would not let you live. I fully expect you to use the following rationalization: "You thought if you let me live I would have to re-evaluate and clear you." However, I am not stupid, I have seen you with your blinders on and I don't expect you to reevaluate.

Supine is a possible. He has been sucking up to you and bojtun a lot. If it is supine/fish, or scott/fish, they made a mistake in not killing fmx or bojtun earlier. If it is me/fish, I never blunder so badly as to leave you alive. I tried that once as a wolf iirc.

You just telegraph things too much for me to leave you alive if I am a wolf. When you said yesterday you were basically voting me today regardless, there was such a low probability that you were just saying that to live through the night that I have no choice if I have a night action. But I would also never let it get to that point.

I don't expect you to change, if I did there would be a big flaw in my reasoning. I am just hoping that next game maybe you will see the error of your ways. (Unless you're a wolf this game, in which case you played extremely well and will win with ease. The nit in me requires me to keep that qualifier in there).

[fmxda]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dustin, if it can't be shortline, who would you lynch?

[/ QUOTE ]

dont ask me this question.

When I feel good about a wolf I go after him hard core. I didn't go into today feeling good about anybody, but I read and now feel great (especially with all of the posting in the last hour)

There is nobody else I would feel good about lynching right now.

And why are you asking me this?

[/ QUOTE ]
supine asking Dustin

An EXTREMELY weird question to be asking. It is even more weird when supine makes a huge post calling shorty a wolf after this. There is absolutely no reason to be asking the guy prosecuting shorty for alternatives when shortline is soon to be your main suspect (along with clowntable).

And the wording "can't be shortline" seems to be a slipup from a wolf who knows shorty is villa.

[fmxda]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't lynch lastchance today.

[/ QUOTE ]
from supine on the night we lynched gt1t after almost getting shorty

Supine seems to have planning to throw gt1t under the bus

Maybe he heard in wolfchat from gt1t himself that he might have been seer peeked and going down.

Either way, he made a show of voting gt1t, even on day one, and now is going against LC, the main suspect of gt1t

[DustinG]

[ QUOTE ]
ummm gt

htf did i miss his concession!

[/ QUOTE ]

this is still really wolfy

[fmxda]

[ QUOTE ]
villagers:

bojtun
nez
dustin
fmxda

probably villager:

lastchance

post more please:

fishmonger
fnord

One of these is a wolf:

spaca
nich
vr
gt1t

wolves:

shorty
clowntable

[/ QUOTE ]
Supine's list the gt1t lynch day

Interestingly one of the four was a wolf. But how the HELL does anyone make a logical leap deciding that there is one wolf among those four? There were still 4 wolves left at that time; and seeing as how he has two "sure" wolfies in shorty and clown... he somehow puts together of random people, most of whom are very hard to read, and says there is exactly one wolf??

Also, fish and fnord need to "post more please" but spaca doesn't?

[ QUOTE ]
I hate this game. I don't want to lynch fnord. fmxda seems like an awkward vote aswell as he was the wagon wolfs concentred on d1.

I too cleared lc based on gt1t convo, but I may have to reread.

Bojtun, dustin and scott have been my surest villagers all game. I hate it if one of you are a wolf.

clown/fishmonger hopefully contains at least 1 wolf. Off the top of my head I can't find a single reason to vote fish, hes been largely invisble.

im so lost

[/ QUOTE ]
supine, Monday

Once again we see interesting prescience in "at least 1 wolf." Now the short treatment that fnord gets looks extremely odd given that fish turned up wolf. Why exactly didn't supine want to lynch fnord? Why did he feel the need to explain why he can't vote fish?

Later he says [ QUOTE ]
I'm voting clown unless anything else comes up. You should concentrate on someone else.

[/ QUOTE ] Yet, at 9:16, we are one vote away from a majority on clown and supine does not vote. Furthermore, the wagons on Monday ended up as a 3-3 flip between clown and fish. Yet supine <u>did not vote at all.</u> He actually says [ QUOTE ]
I abstain.

[/ QUOTE ]