AC Trip Hand #2

[Carmine]

Borgata 10/20. Same villain as hand #1 and an orbit or two after the first hand.

Villain is UTG.

PREFLOP: Five limper to me in BB and I check my option with 98o

FLOP: TJQr
I bet??, UTG raises, MP calls, I 3-bet, UTG 4-bets, MP folds, I call

I'm really thinking during this whole process about my equity. Hard to do at the table but not to bad in this hand. AK/sets are all ruled out for this player. That leaves all two pair combos(27) vs. K9(16) I don't know if he caps pair+draw(KJ/KT)as he can get pretty aggressive and I'm really not sure if he plays K9 even suited UTG. I roughly figure my equity to be 60+% and this is about as good math as I can do at the table. FWIW I'm still calculating this through a portion of the turn play.

TURN: Brick
I bet??, UTG raises, I 3-bet after finishing my calcs but don't know if correct to do so

[CardSharpCook]

I check raise the turn, personally. It is the only way that 2bets go in on the turn when we are ahead. Since he raised you, obv just call down. Your 3bet is silly and is lighting money on fire, imo. Also, I would have to weight AGAINST K9. He is more likely to have a two pair hand by virtue of even bad players knowing they should fold k9 UTG. You can't COMPLETELY discount it, of course, but instead of 27vs.16, consider it more like 27vs.6. Of course, given your line, as opposed to mine, once two bets go in the way you played it, there is a strong skew the other way. Also, 98 is a likely possibility.

[CardSharpCook]

Sometimes, even though the math tells us we are ahead, it is still wrong to raise (3bet).