Largest Lead Prop Question

BRDSR · #1 11-02-2007, 01:35 PM

Considered putting this in chatter, but it doesn't seem quite so newbieish to be required to go there. Mods please move it if you feel otherwise.

I'm seeing a prop bet at my book that reads: "Lakers vs. Suns - Over/Under Largest Lead of the Game" The o/u is 19.5 (-115).

Am I correct in believing that if I took the over, one team or the other would need to amass a 20-point lead at some point in the game? If I took the under, neither team could ever lead by 20 at any point in the game?

If I have this right, it seems like this has "5-unit bet" written all over it. Lakers are getting 9.5 points, and I'm fairly certain I'll take them against the spread.

So, here's my question. Assuming +9.5 is actually the correct line in this game, does it seem unlikely to you that the Lakers will be down 10 more points than that at any point in the game? If, on average, they did get down by 20+ and, on average, they lost by 9.5 points, that means it would have to be likely that they would go on a +10 point run at some point in the game. That just doesn't seem likely to me, making me believe that one of the lines is wrong. As I already said, I think the spread is wrong and should favor LA a little more.

Does this seem like as easy a bet to anyone else as it does to me?

Nostrawho? · #2 11-02-2007, 01:42 PM

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I'm seeing a prop bet at my book that reads: "Lakers vs. Suns - Over/Under Largest Lead of the Game" The o/u is 19.5 (-115).

Am I correct in believing that if I took the over, one team or the other would need to amass a 20-point lead at some point in the game? If I took the under, neither team could ever lead by 20 at any point in the game?

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Yes, that's right.

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Does this seem like as easy a bet to anyone else as it does to me?

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I don't know basketball very well but I would say that if the line is +9.5 then the over at 19.5 is less likely to happen, especially if you think the line is off by a point or more in the Lakers favor. Then again I have no statistical backup for this, so take it with a shaker full of salt. Anyway, 5 units it is!

BRDSR · #3 11-02-2007, 01:46 PM

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I don't know basketball very well but I would say that if the line is +9.5 then the over at 19.5 is less likely to happen, especially if you think the line is off by a point or more in the Lakers favor. Then again I have no statistical backup for this, so take it with a shaker full of salt. Anyway, 5 units it is!

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lol, thanks. I also won't pretend to be an expert on basketball, so I won't be putting 5 units on any NBA bet. That said, I may make this one of the larger NBA bets I've made.

Any statistics that might be useful for this. For instance, something analyzing final score difference vs. largest lead?

rjp · #4 11-02-2007, 01:46 PM

Call me crazy, but I wouldn't risk 5 units on anything without an understanding of the probability model involved.

Also, this game has a very high total, so I wouldn't be too shocked to see the Lakers down by 20+ at some point.

silentbob · #5 11-02-2007, 01:47 PM

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Does this seem like as easy a bet to anyone else as it does to me?

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Not an easy bet in the least. NBA games involve massive runs (i.e., 15 to 20 point swings) all the time.

A 5-unit bet on something like this is playing with fire. Especially given the unpredictability of garbage time.

BRDSR · #6 11-02-2007, 01:48 PM

Obviously not crazy, see my post at almost exactly the same time.

mogwai316 · #7 11-02-2007, 01:52 PM

I'd need to see some historical largest lead data before betting these. But my gut feeling is that the typical largest lead would not be as much as that... 10 points more than the final margin of victory is quite a bit. The recaps on espn.com show the largest lead for each team, so we could collect some data and see.

ImStillBen · #8 11-02-2007, 04:19 PM

I'm sure your gut instinct is much more accurate than the linesmaker's data and experience. Fire away!

mogwai316 · #9 11-02-2007, 04:23 PM

The whole point of my post was that I would like to gather data to confirm/contradict that gut feeling before betting...

BRDSR · #10 11-02-2007, 04:58 PM

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The whole point of my post was that I would like to gather data to confirm/contradict that gut feeling before betting...

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Ask and you shall receive...first, thanks for the tip on finding the stat.

The following is compiled from 72 regular season Lakers games last season. It omits their second game of the season (no data for some reason) and 9 overtime games.

Gut instinct about the difference was correct. The average difference between the final score point differential and the largest lead of the game is 6.31. This does not factor in which team won and which team had the largest lead of the game (as this bet wouldn't).

However, I don't think this is particularly instructive. In general, the larger the final point differential, the smaller the largest lead of the game. In games that were decided by less than 10 points, the difference between the final score point differential and the largest lead was 7.65. In those same games, the largest lead exceeded 19 4 of 40 times (10%).

Finally, in games decided by between 8 and 11 points, the average difference between the final score point differential and the largest lead was 7.29. The largest lead exceeded 19 in 4 of 20 games (20%).

Would run other stats if anyone's interested or would share the raw data with anyone, just PM me. Bottom line is that if you think the spread is accurate, this is probably a good prop bet. My only concern is that the Lakers were probably a slightly better team last year and I don't know how that should affect the data.

May get around to running the same numbers on Phoenix before the game starts.