crockpot's "i ran out of cash/hit my limits" WS props thread - Page 7

mogwai316 · #61 10-25-2007, 08:43 PM

I was about to take the Helton vs. Ramirez when it was at +135 but it dropped to +130. My estimate showed it still had some value at +130 but not enough of an edge to bet it. All the others I estimated to be -EV. I did bet one prop for this game, which was Jiminez BB+K Over 7.5 -130.

centris · #62 10-25-2007, 09:01 PM

I think tha tyou could have got Jimenez BB+K o7 at 5dimes for like -135 or -140 which would have been better.

mogwai316 · #63 10-25-2007, 09:02 PM

Yeah, that would have been better. Unfortunately I don't have an account there yet.

ImStillBen · #64 10-25-2007, 09:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(it is if you assume Poisson distribution of run scored)

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

centris · #65 10-25-2007, 10:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(it is if you assume Poisson distribution of run scored)

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I know it is a poor approximation as runs are not independent, could you suggest a better approximation?

mogwai316 · #66 10-25-2007, 10:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I did bet one prop for this game, which was Jiminez BB+K Over 7.5 -130.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aww, WTF they're taking him out already? 5 BB, 2 K, sigh.

crockpot · #67 10-25-2007, 10:27 PM

anyone here know when vegas sportsbooks open in the morning? this could have a significant impact on my breakfast plans for tonight/tomorrow.

kyleb · #68 10-25-2007, 11:50 PM

usually around 9-10 am depending

hoff21 · #69 10-26-2007, 12:31 AM

Hilton opens at 8 AM. The Coasts' are closed like 3 hours a day, I think they are opened up again by 7 am, maybe earlier.

NajdorfDefense · #70 10-26-2007, 01:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hilton opens at 8 AM. The Coasts' are closed like 3 hours a day, I think they are opened up again by 7 am, maybe earlier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stardust used to be 6-7am. Great place to nab the opening lines for MarchMadness after a nite of partying. Although one time I walked in right after some loon shot a guy.

Most of the regulars hadn't moved much.