50nl Deepish with a nice draw

[whyzze]

On flop villians range is tp2k+ or draw to call.
On the turn his range is only a set. Stats aren't important, I know what he had.

On the flop I wanted to b3b and get it all in. But on the turn my equity shrinks so much that I fold.

Did I play this right? Does anybody check the turn?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $36.85
BB: $57.10
Hero (UTG): $157.85
MP: $56.90
CO: $79.75
BTN: $32.90

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, MP folds, CO calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($6) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4.50</font>, CO calls $4.50, BTN folds

Turn: ($15) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12.50</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $52.50</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $40.00 returned to CO

Pot Size: $40.00 ($2 Rake)

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
On flop villians range is tp2k+ or draw to call.
On the turn his range is only a set. Stats aren't important, I know what he had.


[/ QUOTE ]
Thats a seriously too narrow range.

For the hand, turn bet is standard.

[Manchild84]

Hmmm.. turn play is tricky. You want to stay aggressive, but you don't want to get raised off your hand, like what happened here.
If you just check, there's a chance he might price you in to the draw, so maybe just try that?
As played, this is definetly a fold. The great thing about combo draws is that you can turn coinflips into +EV through fold equity, but you've got none of that if youre just calling.

I'm a little more interested in how you knew what he had. Does your pattern mapper work real good or something?

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm.. turn play is tricky. You want to stay aggressive, but you don't want to get raised off your hand, like what happened here.
If you just check, there's a chance he might price you in to the draw, so maybe just try that?
As played, this is definetly a fold. The great thing about combo draws is that you can turn coinflips into +EV through fold equity, but you've got none of that if youre just calling.

I'm a little more interested in how you knew what he had. Does your pattern mapper work real good or something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol...got quite a few hands against him and he is pretty transparent. he's a pretty big nit, and with a monster raise like that the only thing he can have is a set, and think that i have AA/AK by my turn bet. Im just real confident on that read.

[Knuckles]

I have a similar read on 3 players. The notes on them say to never call a check raise from them unless I can beat a set. They are that tight and straightforward when I raise pf.

[blah-blah-blah]

this is rarely a bluff and most likely a set or K9, maybe 9x spades. even against a set you're getting the odds to call because he's never folding the $21 he has behind if you hit. flop and turn bets are standard and ur turn decision after he raises basically doesn't matter because its 0 EV either way. tough spot and this is why I'm trying to tighten up a bit from UTG.

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm.. turn play is tricky. You want to stay aggressive, but you don't want to get raised off your hand, like what happened here.
If you just check, there's a chance he might price you in to the draw, so maybe just try that?
As played, this is definetly a fold. The great thing about combo draws is that you can turn coinflips into +EV through fold equity, but you've got none of that if youre just calling.

I'm a little more interested in how you knew what he had. Does your pattern mapper work real good or something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol...got quite a few hands against him and he is pretty transparent. he's a pretty big nit, and with a monster raise like that the only thing he can have is a set, and think that i have AA/AK by my turn bet. Im just real confident on that read.

[/ QUOTE ]


If you are that confident in your read turn is a high variance marginal +EV CALL(if my math is accurate)...We can precisely count our outs as 15(8 straight and 7 flush)...15 outs are just slighly less then 2 to 1 against and the pot is laying exactly 2 to 1 and villain is NEVER getting away from his hand(with ONLY $21 left) when we hit and we are NEVER paying him off when we miss or the board pairs but also completes our flush...

[blah-blah-blah]

KEW its only 13 outs cuz we aren't paying off a board pairing spade, so its practically 0 EV

[whyzze]

We only have 13 outs. So by my math, the pot is laying 2.5 to 1, and i am 3 to 1 to catch.

[Manchild84]

If we know he has a set, not all our flush outs are good and probably don't have odds then.

Edit: Wow. Im a little too slow. Everyone just is too smart. I can't show off.