FT200 bottom set is not the nuts

[Paul Thomson]

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euh super easy shove why can't he valuebet worse? he's never folding a made hand when he gets like 90:300


Board: Tc 2h 9d Qc 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.429% 46.43% 00.00% 13 0.00 { QQ+, TT-99, AQs, KJs }
Hand 1: 53.571% 53.57% 00.00% 15 0.00 { 2c2s }

AQs = discounting AQ by a lot
and this is pretty much the absolute worst case scenario for us
KJs has to be discounted bc of preflop (and he might have QTs too if he plays KJs) and sets have to be discounted because imho he valuebets them harder

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kaby - u want to be ahead of his CALLING RANGE more than 50%

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everything that bets the river that isn't a complete bluff is calling a shove wth

he will get 90:500 odds ..................

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i thought KJ missed. i was just trying to point out a math thing.

i would obviously shove the river also.