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Old 11-30-2007, 08:26 PM
Phil153 Phil153 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 4,905
Default Re: 40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

I admire your turn of phrase but Mr. Sklansky had a question which is still going unanswered.

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I'll take the 65 year old.


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I did some more digging. Here's an interesting article giving estimates from the US Census Bureau:

Extrapolating from these figures:

Of the >83% of current 40 year olds who reach 65, ~36% will reach 90.
Of the 100% of current 65 year olds, 27% will reach 90.

My predictions are slightly in front, but it's close. Two things can alter this. One is radical advances in medicine any time from now to 25+ years in the future. If cancer or heart disease is cured, or anti aging drugs are found, or nanomedicine explodes as some predict, it will give a massive advantage to the current 40 year olds likely not predicted by a conservative census bureau. I'm not sure people are aware how much understanding we will soon gain from exponentially increasing computer speeds (guaranteed for the next 10 years at least) with things like protein folding, molecular design and modelling, imaging, microsurgery, targeted treatments, and so on. The flip side is large scale threats like plagues, war and so on occuring 25+ years in the future.

Personally I think unaccounted for medical advances outdo existential threats and I have this one in the bag.
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