2$: 83o flop BP and FD

holy32 · #1 03-12-2007, 08:45 AM

Is this okay or just plain dumb ?
Button is very loose player

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t120/t240
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t3420
Button: t6400
SB: t1780
Hero: t1900

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Button calls t240 (pot was t360), SB calls t120 (pot was t600), Hero checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t720, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero is all-in t1660

mmorpg · #2 03-12-2007, 09:22 AM

Looks a bit too risky for my taste

rhettoric · #3 03-12-2007, 09:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
just plain dumb

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the button a very loose *caller?*

this is a pretty spooky board, but if someone flops the nut flush they usually don't push, they check, hoping to get more money into the pot. Think about it...there aren't a lot of hands that can draw to beat you so it's a perfect time to slow-play.

almost very time you're called, you're beat. I don't have a calculator up, but I don't think this is +EV

I mean , say you do get called by something like Qd Ac, you're still drawing to seven outs. I c/f.

holy32 · #4 03-12-2007, 09:42 AM

Well, we are asuming noone has AQ in this situation...

But you are right about worst case scenario, someone has better pair + better FD, then we'd be screwed. Asuming noone has that tho, we're taking down the pot alot, and racing something like QT or (worst case again) QJ. Check Stack sizes also, we could really use this pot...

edit:
If called:
vs QT (no FD) 50% - 50%
vs QT (T for FD) 15% - 85%
vs QJ 40% - 60%
vs Ax (A for FD) 50% - 50%

looks pretty good to me, tons of other hands are folding and I'm taking it down.

jafeather · #5 03-12-2007, 10:03 AM

ugh...i don't like it. I'm checking with the hope of checking it all the way down. No turn makes me feel better, only a perfect runner-runner

holy32 · #6 03-12-2007, 10:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
ugh...i don't like it. I'm checking with the hope of checking it all the way down. No turn makes me feel better, only a perfect runner-runner

[/ QUOTE ]

Runner-runner 3, 3 ?

so c/f is the line ?

jafeather · #7 03-12-2007, 10:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ugh...i don't like it. I'm checking with the hope of checking it all the way down. No turn makes me feel better, only a perfect runner-runner

[/ QUOTE ]

Runner-runner 3, 3 ?

so c/f is the line ?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my line barring a miracle

Mike MacIntosh · #8 03-12-2007, 11:24 AM

CHECK/FOLD.