|
|
#13
11-06-2007, 06:46 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Q9s two pairs
[ QUOTE ]
Also, if he is a good hand reader, he should know that you probably didn't make a straight on the turn (b/c you should be capping JT on the flop) so he shouldn't be afraid to be 3 betting you on 4th with any of his 2 pairs. [/ QUOTE ] 5bet cap in Vegas. I'd usually just call the 3bet with JT. Also it doesn't matter what I'd specifically do because to him I just like like a tight young kid. 
|
|
#14
11-06-2007, 06:53 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Q9s two pairs
this maybe isn't the best example, but i think this spot is important because on the turn, I'm supposed to have JT here a decent portion of the time. This guy is raising with no hesitation whatsoever, so basically what he's saying is that he doesn't care that I probably have JT.
Also when I say this guy is a good hand reader for this game, I don't mean he's sophisticated or anything, I'm just saying he's good enough to realize that a flop raise in position is often a draw and the most likely draw just got there on the turn.
|
|
#15
11-06-2007, 07:48 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Q9s two pairs
[ QUOTE ]
statistically speaking, you maximize your expectation by trying to call a little too much in these spots. i might write more about this at some point. i don't think its been addressed in any published articles or books. [/ QUOTE ] care to elaborate a sentence or two now for the curious and impatient?
|
|
#16
11-06-2007, 10:35 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Q9s two pairs
[ QUOTE ]
care to elaborate a sentence or two now for the curious and impatient? [/ QUOTE ] i probablyw orded that poorly and it has to do with the fact taht incorrect folds are likely bigger mistakes than incorrect calls but either way it involves some assumptions about what "trying to call a little too often" means. i'll try to write more about it tomorrow or osmething, i dont have time now.
|
|
#17
11-06-2007, 11:46 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Q9s two pairs
[ QUOTE ]
this maybe isn't the best example, but i think this spot is important because on the turn, I'm supposed to have JT here a decent portion of the time. This guy is raising with no hesitation whatsoever, so basically what he's saying is that he doesn't care that I probably have JT. [/ QUOTE ] This was my thinking as well. You can probably fold here especially if he's more passive on the turn. I just don't see how he can show up with anything you beat here other than 98.
|
|
#18
11-06-2007, 12:07 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Q9s two pairs
Sorry I haven't read the thread, don't want to bias my thoughts.
I think you're good here like 1-2% of the time. He has a set or JT. So techinically you should fold the 15-1 the pot is laying you. However, I don't know how you value the psychological devestation if he flips up T7s that picked up a flush draw on the turn, or 98, or Q9, or a limped KK/AA. I think maybe it would have been better to just call the turn and call the river. He still has 98 a lot if you take that line, and you get to showdown in this big pot.
|
|
#19
11-06-2007, 12:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Q9s two pairs
Statistically speaking, I would raise more in the cutoff than on the button, but here I wouldn't want to share the cluelese limper with the non-clueless and aggressive small blind.
|
|
#20
11-06-2007, 12:46 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Q9s two pairs
[ QUOTE ]
this is one of those spots where you're confident in your read that you're beat and you've been right on with your hand reading for a long time and making lots of good folds which is great, but you're getting dangerously close to the point where you're relying too much on your hand-reading and folding ability. based on your description he can still have two pair. you're getting a bajillion to one. you have to call. and you cant get mad at yourself when he shows the set, which he will 9 out of 10 times. not close. folding too much in spots like this is a big leak. [/ QUOTE ] oh yeah and i can't read boards on 2+2 and i didnt realize that JT made a straight so it might actually be a fold.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
