Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r

[Body Man D]

[ QUOTE ]
call even if you are beat the odds you are getting are great. Also winning this pot skyrockets you to a stack you an dominate as well as knock out 2 people who you don't want on your left with their stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

He wouldn't be knocking out lilholdem fwiw, but I still like a call. As has been said, lilholdems 3bet range is very wide and even if brsavage is a nit he knows this. Therefore his shove range is a lot wider than it would be if someone else had 3bet.

[shaundeeb]

ohh I read his stack as 5 figures not 6 and thought his 8x was all but like 1k of his stack.

hmm I still like a call cuz lil can showup with soo much worse now.

[djk123]

I really think is a fold. I do not think Lil's 3 betting range here is as wide as people
are suggesting due to the stack sizes. Lil knows GB is good and that GB knows that Lil is very
aggressive. Given this, I doubt Lil thinks GB is going to raise from LP with 13 BBs, with Lil sitting on a
monster stack on the button, and fold to a shove often enough to make reraising light a good play.

Let's say Lil's range is 66+,AT+,KQ and BR's range is TT+,AQ+.

Assuming Lil always calls BR's shove, there is 96614 in the pot and we have to call our remaining
34807. So we're getting 2.77571, which means we need 26.5% equity to breakeven.

Against those 2 ranges, we only have 22.33% equity, clearly not enough.

I cannot imagine BR's range being any looser, but even if I give Lil 22+,A8+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs, we still only have 23.8% equity.

[markysals11]

because lil's range is so wide, and we know your opening range on the button is so wide, this may lead br to shove w/ a wider range himself, leading me to believe this wouldn't be a bad spot to gamble

[d2themfi]

THis looks like a really easy fold. Br has no fold equity and he seems kind of nitish

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think is a fold. I do not think Lil's 3 betting range here is as wide as people
are suggesting due to the stack sizes. Lil knows GB is good and that GB knows that Lil is very
aggressive. Given this, I doubt Lil thinks GB is going to raise from LP with 13 BBs, with Lil sitting on a
monster stack on the button, and fold to a shove often enough to make reraising light a good play.

Let's say Lil's range is 66+,AT+,KQ and BR's range is TT+,AQ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

range looks good for lil, but again I don't think BR's range is correct.

Please run the numbers for the same range for Lil and the range I suggest for BR just to make sure that is in fact a call. If it's not, then this hand is definitely a fold because I doubt BR is shoving any ligther than my range ever. But I think you'll see that if my range for BR is correct then it is definitely a call, and while I may not have played with BR as much as some of you, he's not that bad preflop that his range is TT+/AQ here IMO.

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really think is a fold. I do not think Lil's 3 betting range here is as wide as people
are suggesting due to the stack sizes. Lil knows GB is good and that GB knows that Lil is very
aggressive. Given this, I doubt Lil thinks GB is going to raise from LP with 13 BBs, with Lil sitting on a
monster stack on the button, and fold to a shove often enough to make reraising light a good play.

Let's say Lil's range is 66+,AT+,KQ and BR's range is TT+,AQ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

range looks good for lil, but again I don't think BR's range is correct.

Please run the numbers for the same range for Lil and the range I suggest for BR just to make sure that is in fact a call. If it's not, then this hand is definitely a fold because I doubt BR is shoving any ligther than my range ever. But I think you'll see that if my range for BR is correct then it is definitely a call, and while I may not have played with BR as much as some of you, he's not that bad preflop that his range is TT+/AQ here IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

76,734,808,920 games 107.348 secs 714,822,902 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.085% 19.30% 04.79% 14806352940 3675239724.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 43.895% 39.53% 04.36% 30335900280 3346526532.00 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 32.020% 29.65% 02.37% 22753810968 1816978476.00 { 66+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }

Not enough. And that's with 99 and AJs counted 100% since I don't know how to discount them in pokerstove.

edit: fwiw, AQs is def a call.

[0evg0]

Wow, very surprised that AQo is not a call vs that range.

I'm like never wrong at this stuff.

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

You can discount hands by just picking out specific suited combinations (for AJs, if you want to discount it 25%, just do AJhh).

[djk123]

Ohhh, clever. Thanks.

[Jurollo]

HOLY CRAP!!! Deeb said to call in a marginal spot?!?!