$5/$10 Set River Decision (Hand reading related)

[NYWalker]

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As for whether or not OP is good at poker or not, I don't really give a flying [censored], and will lock the thread if it continues in that direction.

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Totally agree.

Let's talk about the hand analysis. Stop just posting by saying 'you suck at poker.', if you have no other comment than this, please don't response.

This is basic 2+2 forum rules.

[NYWalker]

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you butchered this hand in every manner possible except for the PF call. you are never going to stack him or build a decent pot by minraising and weakbetting, hoping he raises.


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Questions:
1. What you put him on and how do you narrow his range on the flop, the turn while building the pot/keeping him in the hand?
2. He's going to flat call my flop mini-raise with over pair?
3. To this villain, mini-raise rep playing back with air, or monster? (I limp/call pf, also given the last JJ hand's dynamic)
4. What's the boundary of a raise he can call on the flop given his range and what's your plan on the turn?

Against most of his range, raise $300 on the flop (assumes he called) and how likely we can keep extracting more money at the turn/river?

[MATT111]

I would try to check this hand down because he wont give you action unless you give him a chance to outdraw you.

[Eagles]

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Link

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Eagle,

You know you lost in that argument about my two big hands in the WCOOP ME. It's interesting you still bring it up.

I'm not saying you are bad player or can't beat me in HU. I'm waiting for you to catch up at cardplayers' POY. You will earn my respect if you make 10 POY FTs in live tournaments in a year.

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1. I only argued with you about 1 hand and basically everyone agreed with me. I only brought it up again because I would give my left nut to play you HU because I would make so much money, or at least gbux/sklansky bucks.

2. I have played exactly 1 live tournament in my life. But according to you you will not respect me until I start grinding live tournaments. Awesome.

edit: Oops my bad Big Jim didn't see your post.

[Eagles]

NYwalker,
As for the actual hand. One thing I see in nearly every thread you start is Link . I do not mean this as an insult but you are always so certain and manage to narrow down someones hand range into such a tiny portion that almost always seems to be right. So either your playing the most predictable players ever, you are the best hand reader in the world, or you have a confirmation bias.

On to the actual hand.

PF standard

Flop This is a very dry board so raising and calling are both fine. The thing is you want to play for stacks here for sure. You basically have the nuts and tons of worse hands will stack off. In this spot I would either call or but in a raise big enough that I could get bet the turn and then shove the river.

Turn Once you minraise and he calls the pot is roughly 550
and you have 1750 behind. You have a very strong hand and want to get it in. The described villain seems very bad and will call down with a wide range. Now if you raised a little bigger on the flop to 250 or 300 you could bet turn and bet river and get all in. But since you made such a small raise to get all in you need to do one of three things.
1. Bet almost full pot on the turn and shove river
2. Bet smaller on the turn like 300-400 and then overbet shove river or full pot river.
3. Induce a stupid bluff which wont happen as often as you would like to think.

River
Once you get here checking behind is the absolute worse decision you can make. You have the best hand like 95% of the time its a clear bet. Given your bet sizing on previous streets your stuck in a pretty tricky spot. I'd either bet around 800 and hope he calls with whatever stupid hand he has or try and induce a bluff by betting small which honestly is a perfectly reasonable line.

[NYWalker]

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2. I have played exactly 1 live tournament in my life.


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Please understand live play first, then criticize any hands between two live players.

[AAismyfriend]

lol at this thread

[Teph]

I knew "Hand reading related" being in the title would point to a great thread.

ty for not disappointing op

[TheUsher]

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Link

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Eagle,

You know you lost in that argument about my two big hands in the WCOOP ME. It's interesting you still bring it up.

I'm not saying you are bad player or can't beat me in HU. I'm waiting for you to catch up at cardplayers' POY. You will earn my respect if you make 10 POY FTs in live tournaments in a year.

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fwiw, eagles is a friend of mine and he's a good player. he might not have 10 fts live but I'm on my way there so I could comment a bit live.

on to your hand, I'd raise flop much bigger, then bet turn enough to shove river.

[jlkrusty]

NYW:

I don't like your flop min raise. Every dollar you bet on the flop is like betting three dollars since you can bet progressively more in relation to the pot size on the turn and river. When you have a set, it's important to figure out a gameplan to get all the chips in the middle by the river. In otherwords, on the flop, develop a plan for how you can get all the chips in. The easiest and usual course for getting this done is to get as many chips in on the flop as possible. This will help ensure that by the river you'll get all the chips in.

Or maybe your plan to get all the chips in was to make a sneaky river inducing bluff bet. For most sets, you should not be relying on something like that to get the chips in.

As for the rest of the hand: If your read on him was as good as you say, then other than the flop, I think you played the hand fine. And, if you knew he was on air, then I like your smallish bet on the river.