NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's what Pinny has so far:

VaTech -3.5
LSU -7
Oklahoma -3.5

[/ QUOTE ]

1u Missou +3.5, will add

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and Iggy, I think your Pitt/WV line is off by 8 or so. No way is the line that big.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way that line will be WVU -20.

Sportsbook had that as a Game of the Year this season. Two weeks ago it was WVU -24.5. Last week it was -25. In the interim, UCONN @ WVU was bet up to -21 and WVU blew them out and covered easily. Pitt lost (including against the spread) at home against South Florida.

There is no way this line will open anywhere close to -20. WVU -28 sounds about right. I could see it as low as -26 and as high as -30.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
1u Missou +3.5, will add

[/ QUOTE ]

I love that bet (probably means you will lose handily).

It looks like it has already been bet down to -3.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
Arizona State -8

I think

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take Arizona for the farm, Alex. That's probably a reasonable line, but I'm certainly betting Arizona if I get more than a TD.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You really think the Pitt/WVU line will be smaller than the UConn/WVU line? I don't see that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

i have to check, but isn't uconn >> pitt... although i guess WVU made a statement and will just continue??

[/ QUOTE ]



that's exactly what I thought.
The line vs. UConn was 21...and WV blew that WAY out of the water.
UConn is considered to be much better than Pitt. And WV is now extra excited that they are back in the championship mix following LSU's loss.

I think WV -28 feels right for this one.

[MicroBob]

I'm guessing CMU -10 or so in the MAC championship and I think there is value on the Miami side.

Miami, Ohio has been looking a bit weak lately.
Bad 7-0 win vs. AKR on national TV and then blowing a 17-7 halftime lead at Ohio by surrendering 21 3rd Q points to finish the season 6-6.
But Miami seemed to dominate every aspect of the game except a few too many penalties and failure to finish their drives instead having to settle for 5 FG's.
That's something of a positive too fwiw since their kicking game had been questionable this year.

CMU will have most of the fan support in Detroit where they beat Ohio 31-10 in the very same championship game last year.
But I don't think they are as good as they were last year and they have definitely been almost quietly struggling down the stretch.

They lost to EMU at home and the Eagles just aren't that good.
Then they had a fairly miraculous comeback to squeak by with a win at AKR by scoring 2 TD's in the last 6 mins.

On the other side, while Miami definitely isn't a great team I think there is value with them.
They also have the additional incentive of needing to win this game to be bowl-eligible.

[bills217]

Rutgers +3

[NajdorfDefense]

cmu -3.5, not quite 10....

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1u Missou +3.5, will add

[/ QUOTE ]

I love that bet (probably means you will lose handily).

It looks like it has already been bet down to -3.

[/ QUOTE ]

added 1u at +3.
At least we're still ahead of DrBob this year, amirite?

Thank god for futures: PSU, LSU, UCLA, Boise, Miami, ND, Okla, etc, all under. Many thanks to all who pointed out the value in some of those before I even looked.

[MicroBob]

wow.
well color me surprised.
I really thought Miami would be viewed as ultra-crappy and CMU as better than they really are.

Obviously at 3.5 I'm thinking there's value with CMU.
They will practically have a home-field advantage in this one.