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#11
10-09-2007, 02:08 PM
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Re: Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
27 two pair - 84% equity
9 sets - 63% equity Approximately 400 hands he's even money with (A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hands) - 50% equity 4 hands he's tied with (98 no diamonds) - 50% equity 5 hands he's tied with when another diamond doesn't come up - 32% equity 12 hands he's behind, but has 3 outs to tie with (K9) - 8% equity 16 hands he's behind and virtually drawing dead against - 0% 45 flushes he's drawing dead against (or virtually) - 0% equity Total of 518 hands. Equity against the range = (27/518)(.84) + (9/518)(.63) + (400/518)(.50) + (4/518)(.50) + (5/518)(.32) + (16/518)(0) + (45/518)(0) = 44.8% equity However, this does not include the fact that there may be worse hands than these (overpairs, hands like AQ, bare straight draws) which may fold to a re-raise. If only 20% of the time someone folds to your re-raise, re-raising is clearly +EV. This also also assumes that any two suited cards are in villain's range. 
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#12
10-10-2007, 02:19 PM
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Re: Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
[ QUOTE ]
27 two pair - 84% equity 9 sets - 63% equity Approximately 400 hands he's even money with (A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hands) - 50% equity 4 hands he's tied with (98 no diamonds) - 50% equity 5 hands he's tied with when another diamond doesn't come up - 32% equity 12 hands he's behind, but has 3 outs to tie with (K9) - 8% equity 16 hands he's behind and virtually drawing dead against - 0% 45 flushes he's drawing dead against (or virtually) - 0% equity Total of 518 hands. Equity against the range = (27/518)(.84) + (9/518)(.63) + (400/518)(.50) + (4/518)(.50) + (5/518)(.32) + (16/518)(0) + (45/518)(0) = 44.8% equity However, this does not include the fact that there may be worse hands than these (overpairs, hands like AQ, bare straight draws) which may fold to a re-raise. If only 20% of the time someone folds to your re-raise, re-raising is clearly +EV. This also also assumes that any two suited cards are in villain's range. [/ QUOTE ] Doesn't it also assume we only have one villain? We have at least two, make it three if UTG+1 comes along. That's a potential perfect storm of screwed.
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