200/400 stud/8 hand that plays like stud high

[DeathDonkey]

Thanks Phat Mack, I don't know why I thought the tens changed anything in retrospect. I did fold after tanking a bit. I think I should have 3 bet quickly and represented trips, but Joe Tall told me if I had trip 5s I should lead out and that seems weird to me, so I am still a bit confused, but think this was a good fold since I'm never far ahead and sometimes far behind. They both bricked on 6th and it went check/check and I got sad, P1 rivered a runnered flush and bet and she called. I feel like she had split aces unimproved but will never know.

-DeathDonkey

[Sevenfold]

This is an auto fold on 5th after a bet/raise.

It's not even close.

If you play, you must raise. So you are looking at 5 more bets going in to the river, in a very cloudy situation.

You are sometimes a little ahead of two hands, and way behind the rest of the time.

Your reverse implied odds are terrible. If you hit the 5 on 6th you can't get paid.

What if you get 4 bet? Whats the plan from there? Check/call 6th?

When you feel bad about dumping here, and feel 'sad' when they go check/check, it's like the guy who says after an
A 4 5 4 4 board in hold em saying, "Oh man, I folded a 4."

You played the hand correct, except I would have led 5th, called one raise from there, folded to another double raise.

[Micturition Man]

Wah?

What is the hand you guys are afraid of that makes this an autofold?

Please explain this to me. I can only assume you think the J has aces up or trips. If so why do you think this is a likely holding compared to split aces, splits J's with an A kicker, or a flush draw with aces or threes.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
but Joe Tall told me if I had trip 5s I should lead out and that seems weird to me,

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not the only one to tell you that. Read the replies of Andy and TT.

[Sevenfold]

[ QUOTE ]
Wah?

What is the hand you guys are afraid of that makes this an autofold?

Please explain this to me. I can only assume you think the J has aces up or trips. If so why do you think this is a likely holding compared to split aces, splits J's with an A kicker, or a flush draw with aces or threes.

[/ QUOTE ]

At best you have thin equity. If you are up against split Js and Ks, one pair in each hand, you are in pretty good shape.

If you are beat in either spot, you are in terrible shape. It is just too much to hope for.

If either player hits 6th, you are virtually locked out, whereas the only card(s) that can make your hand on 6th and get action are the 2 remaining Qs.

It is not enough to be ahead more than half the time here. Being a slight fav 60% of the time diesn't balance the 40% of the time you're buried. (Example estimates of course).

[Micturition Man]

First of all if you 3-bet this pot is probably going to be heads-up, not 3-way.

Also remember you may get some mileage out of being able to represent trips.

Second why do you put yourself at an only 60% chance of being ahead? I assume you are not particularly afraid of the split kings, or does it concern you that he bet into JA?

For the JA3 player what hands are you particularly afraid of here?

I just don't see any reason to feel like you are behind here.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
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Wouldn't the solid guy raise with split Kings? Wouldn't he call with (A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? I don't see why he "has" to have Kings here. Maybe when he bets K9o on fourth you give him credit for Kings, but not for calling on third.



[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't know what we have, he thinks we've got a low. Him 2betting 3rd doesn't seem to do anything useful. The girl should fold 3rd no matter what, and the BI is probably calling 2 bets just as easily as 1 if he's got a good hand and he's a reasonable player, and with just KK I'd think he'd prefer getting to 4th cheaply as he will then be able to play his hand easier. Depending on how the K perceives DD he may want to keep the pot small so that DD will make an incorrect peel on 4th if he sees him as some fishy young Holdem kid. If they've played together before and he knows DD is good at these games then I think he should still call because he will know DD has a fairly solid hand here and he should see no reason to build a large pot early on.

[/ QUOTE ]

great analysis. Question is do we really want to get HU with P2? P2's range is hard to determine.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been thinking about this hand and I'm beginning to think you're right. This might be one of those rare times where I want to fold what has a pretty good chance of being the best hand. P2 has accidentally stumbled into a situation where her hand is extremely difficult to read and could result in a catastrophic fold on 6th or a spew by us on 6th/7th when we might already have only 4 outs. When I first read the hand I thought "we've probably got the best hand, we raise" but I think I'm coming around and realizing that it may be better to relinquish the pot while it's only decent sized instead of making it huge and almost forcing us to show down. I'm not completely sold that we should fold yet but I'm leaning that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

This has been a very educational hand for me, it was the toughest hand I've seen all month.

1) Normally I would assume calling is worse than raising, but in this specific hand I only think raising is good if (xx)K can find a fold at least 50% of the time. So in essence I think both calling and raising are of equal value. The real question then becomes if the hero should fold or not.

2) Some people have questioned if we should fold since there isnt enough evidence that either opponent have two pair. So I ran a sim for stud high only to see where we stand and I was surprised that if we are up against KK and AA that our hand is not as strong as expected. Since there are too many possible draws/redraw including the possibility of a split pot I have to finally join the fold camp. I tend to forget that overcards are a slight favorite on 5th street vs 2 underpair, this has been a great lesson that I will try to avoid in the future.

3) This brings us back to point one. Raising to attempt to go heads up vs possible slowplayed AA seems pointless if she is showdown bound, as a slight favorite she is unlikely to fold (and from description she sounds like a retard who always calls when she doesn't know where she stands).

Thanks for sharing this hand DD!

[Micturition Man]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising to attempt to go heads up vs possible slowplayed AA seems pointless if she is showdown bound, as a slight favorite she is unlikely to fold (and from description she sounds like a retard who always calls when she doesn't know where she stands).


[/ QUOTE ]


It is not pointless. Getting an overpair out is a big gain for you if you have a smaller two pair.

This is very standard stud high play.

Plus the fact your doorcard is paired and 5's are live make it quite possible the K will fold split kings fearing trips.

Also the same consideration should mean you will get played back at less by aces up.

This is not necessary to the justification for raising though so don't get stuck on it.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising to attempt to go heads up vs possible slowplayed AA seems pointless if she is showdown bound, as a slight favorite she is unlikely to fold (and from description she sounds like a retard who always calls when she doesn't know where she stands).


[/ QUOTE ]


It is not pointless. Getting an overpair out is a big gain for you if you have a smaller two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

we are 50% at best getting the overpair out however, thats just not enough to warrant playing on. I think as played DD was correct to fold. Mind you I was not in the folding cap at first.

[blumpkin]

Call 4th. Bet out 5th. As played, fold. Basically, this is what I said to Joe when he showed me the hand and were his thoughts too, In think.

Now, 3-betting is worth considering but is quite risky. You'll look like a genius when the guy folds kings but there are many problems you could run into. TT - what is all this talk about the king folding 50% of the time? A guess? Or is that how much we need him to fold to make the play +EV (assuming a certain range of hands for the J).

Also, I'm pretty sure that QQ55 is a favorite over on 5th either KK or AA but an underdog vs both. So the statement "I tend to forget that overcards are a slight favorite on 5th street vs 2 underpair" is wrong as I interpret it or just needs to be clarified.

It would have been very interesting to know what the action would have been had DD bet out 5th. Since the action in fact went check, bet, raise, perhaps check/folding turned out best in hindsight (unless there is more to the hand??). But I think you have to bet, and probably hope the K raises with just one pair.