Save the money or burn it?

[felson]

amoeba, thanks for your posts in this thread. i just fixed a big leak.

[FlyingStart]

The logic behind checking the turn is fine, but people who play a LAG style (i.e Grimmstar) that includes firing second barrels I think could lose some value by checking behind.

And if a LAG isn't gonna bet a strong hand like this, why should people believe him on other occasions?
Do you want to be the player that automatically shuts down whenever the third flushcard comes? (unless you have nutredrraw or the flush yourself, or obv. bluffing)

Say you have AK without diamonds, what would you have done with that hand in the same situation?

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
The logic behind checking the turn is fine, but people who play a LAG style (i.e Grimmstar) that includes firing second barrels I think could lose some value by checking behind.

And if a LAG isn't gonna bet a strong hand like this, why should people believe him on other occasions?
Do you want to be the player that automatically shuts down whenever the third flushcard comes? (unless you have nutredrraw or the flush yourself, or obv. bluffing)

[/ QUOTE ]

its not inconceivable for Grim, given his LAG image to hold the flush here himself. I think a lot of worse made hands are folding.

Grim obviously has to think about whether villain is capable of playing back with less than flush here if he bets turn.

if villain will try to checkraise bluff the turn representing the flush fairly often, then betting the turn is correct.

but I don't think Grim has this knowledge.

[DJ Sensei]

[ QUOTE ]
once again, betting the turn is a huge leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

While it may not be as big a possibility on this particular board, checking behind the turn is also more likely to induce a river bet from villain regardless of what he has here.
(Kx, 76, stupid other pocket pair, etc.)

so thats cool.

[AJFenix]

[ QUOTE ]

but I don't think Grim knows how to check

[/ QUOTE ]

[terp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
These guys aren't folding either if the river pairs the board so i don't mind just calling the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why calling is good, so you can hit the boat and get paid off. Calling regardless isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

best line is still checking behind on the turn.

and I hope none of you will come in and say something stupid like "i have to protect against 4th diamond".

[/ QUOTE ]

[Esoteric]

[ QUOTE ]

I imagine he probably hadn't deciced whether or not to call if the river was a blank yet. These guys aren't folding either if the river pairs the board so i don't mind just calling the turn.

I think this is a flush though about 95% of the time and would like to think i would lay down on this river but with 4:1 the call is meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding me... 95%? You don't think people call a $25 raise pre-flop shorthanded with pocket pairs much more often than with Ax suited?

[Esoteric]

[ QUOTE ]

best line is still checking behind on the turn.

and I hope none of you will come in and say something stupid like "i have to protect against 4th diamond".

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is that certainly the best line? Have you really considered the numbers behind re-raising all-in on the turn or are you basing this on the statement in this thread that says 95% of the time the guy has the flush?

If you take the time to map it out, I think you need to strongly consider re-raising all in on the turn.

Here are some of the calculations I came up with based on what I read as the likely hands you are up against. You can changes these percentages and recompute but you will still probably find that re-raising all-in on the turn make more money. At the least, I think you'll find that you should consider the all-in play on the turn.


% of Time Opponent Holds ||| % You Win (after turn card)
-----------------------------------------------------------
5% AA (w/ Ad) ||| 78% (He draws a diamond)
5% AK/KQ/KJ ||| 77%
0% QQ-TT ||| Doesn't Matter
40% Flush ||| 23% (You make a house)
40% Trips ||| 97%
5% Two Pair (54 w/ 4d) ||| 77% (He draws a diamond)
5% Bluff ||| 90%


Scenario 1:
------------------
You bet on the turn and raise all-in after the opponent's min raise.

If he holds || Assume he || You net
--------------------------------------
AA || Calls || +$520 * 78% of the time
AA || Calls || -$520 * 22% of the time
AK || Calls || +$520 * 77% of the time
AK || Calls || -$520 * 23% of the time
Flush || Calls || -$520 * 77% of the time
Flush || Calls || +$520 * 23% of the time
Two Pair || Folds || +$366 * 100% of the time
Bluff || Folds || +$366 * 100% of the time

Total EV ~ +1000


Scenario 2:
------------------
You check the turn and call a pot sized river bet only if another diamond does not appear and you don't get a house.

8 diamonds left in the deck that don't pair the board
10 cards give you a house or better
28 cards are blanks

~ 17% time diamond arrives (which kills you if he holds a single diamond like 4d4c or Ad, etc. and more importantly, kills the action)
~ 22% time you get a house or better (he may not pay you off)
~ 61% time nothing changes (you beat trips but loose to flush and possibly gain a bluff)


My Opinion
---------
I just can't see why checking behind on the turn is the best play. I cannot see how it can make you more over the long run, but maybe my math is screwy somewhere. Please run the numbers for scenario two and tell me what you come up with? I say it is about 1/2 as good of a play... especially when you consider other factors like table image and having a large stack.

Also doesn't anyone else see how you loose more money the times you opponent has a lower set and you don't get paid off vs the money you loose when he got lucky and hit some bogus flush.

Playing shorthanded can you really afford to be that big of a pushover?

[KRANTZ]

i do not like checking behind on the turn. you guys are being so results oriented, seeing as grim got check-raised. grim is LAG and people will pay him off with one pair hands here. you lose SO MUCH value against other hands, like top pair with/without a diamond. checking behind is such a weak play, you have a set and just because the flush draw hit does not mean that you are ALWAYS up against a flush. what about lower sets? two pair? you lose so much value by checking behind.

[poincaraux]

Hi. Orange pointed the SSNL forum at this thread, and I've learned a lot from it. Thanks! I'm not good enough to put people on ranges here, but EV ~$1000 when the pot is ~$1000 (if we stack off and get called) and we're behind a lot of hands doesn't seem right to me ..

[ QUOTE ]


% of Time Opponent Holds ||| % You Win (after turn card)
-----------------------------------------------------------
5% AA (w/ Ad) ||| 78% (He draws a diamond)
5% AK/KQ/KJ ||| 77%
0% QQ-TT ||| Doesn't Matter
40% Flush ||| 23% (You make a house)
40% Trips ||| 97%
5% Two Pair (54 w/ 4d) ||| 77% (He draws a diamond)
5% Bluff ||| 90%


Scenario 1:
------------------
You bet on the turn and raise all-in after the opponent's min raise.

If he holds || Assume he || You net || This happens
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
AA || Calls || +$520 * 78% of the time || 5% of the time
AA || Calls || -$520 * 22% of the time || ..
AK || Calls || +$520 * 77% of the time || 5% of the time
AK || Calls || -$520 * 23% of the time || ..
Flush || Calls || -$520 * 77% of the time || 40% of the time
Flush || Calls || +$520 * 23% of the time || ..
<font color="red"> Trips || Calls || +$520 * 97% of the time || 40% of the time
Trips || Calls || -$520 * 3% of the time || ..</font>
Two Pair || Folds || +$366 * 100% of the time || 5% of the time
Bluff || Folds || +$366 * 100% of the time || 5% of the time

Total EV ~ +1000


[/ QUOTE ]

First, you lumped AK/KQ/KJ together as AK, right? But I think you forgot Trips in your second table.

I might be wrong, but I think you just added up the nets from your second table:

520*((0.78-0.22) + (.77-.23) + (.23-.77)) + 366 * 2 = $1023.2

Don't you mean to weight them by the numbers in your first table (I added them in bold to the second table)?

520*(0.05*(0.78-0.22) + 0.05*(.77-.23) + .4*(.23-.77) + .4*(.97-.03)) + 366*(.05 + .05) = $148.40

It's late and ya'll are better than me, so I won't comment on the ranges/percentages, but I think the above math is correct.