25 - low set...fold this river?

[Profish2285]

If you had air here, then congratulations, youre one of the few people who would pull this, but then again youre on this site so everything changes. Im giving my advice against what I know about the villain, which is not much. And I know that pretty much every unknown that takes this line does it with the goods.

[traz]

i'm pretty sure I call all day. Even with what I consider to be a tight range, you have enough equity. If you throw in some other hands like AJ/KJ/JT/J9 then it's a really easy call.

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Board: Jc 7s 8h 4s Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.860% 41.86% 00.00% 18 0.00 { 4d4h }
Hand 1: 58.140% 58.14% 00.00% 25 0.00 { 88-77, AsJs, KsJs, QJs, T9s, 9s8s, 87s, QJo, T9o, 87o }

[Profish2285]

Traz did you see this guys stats? I dont think AJ/KJ/JT/J9 are ever in his range here. I have to even give some skepticism to alot of those two pair hands. I think if you want to include two pair in there, it should be one of those QJ hands, not both, and definitely not 87.

[traz]

If you don't think he's aggro enough to bet AJ or 78, then he's not aggro enough to bet spades either. But you're really just fooling yourself.

You guys need to stop putting so much emphasis on stats. I've seen alot of bad advice recently based solely on stats over a small sample. It's bad practice.

You have a good hand. Villain is a bad player. It's really that simple.

[traz]

And also I really hope villain wasn't a 2p2er cause his play is terrible

[Profish2285]

I do think hes aggro enough to bet AJ or 78...on the turn. Also, I dont think hes aggro enough to bet a plain flush draw. But AJss and A8ss are a whole different story. Im just saying from what I have seen so far, I can count on one hand the number of times I see this done with one pair, or even two pair. This is almost always a set, straight or flush when villains take this line. I think his turn betting range is wide enough, but Im not convinced his river range is wide enough. As far as stats go, I think they make a difference here, but Im not saying they are the end all answer. However, when I see most villains taking this line with very strong holdings, and then I see a villain with these stats take the same line, I think its safe to assume we are beat.

[traz]

I understand how you feel. I just don't agree.

With a range of sets + straights + flushes + 2pair, we have the equity to call. IMO that is a tight range against any terrible villain, and villain is terrible. Thus I think it's definitely fine to call river.

If you believe that there is no chance of 2pair or worse in his range, then fine fold, I just think you're wrong.

[Profish2285]

How often does two pair have to show up here to make calling profitable seeing as how we are losing to everything else in that range?

[corsakh]

I probably press call and switch windows immediately to read some news or something [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Profish2285]

Seriously, someone who can do the math for this, how often does two pair have to show up here to make calling correct? If we put his range mostly on sets/straights/flushes, we are obviously looking at a very -EV situation, so there has to be an abundance of two pair hands to counter act that I think.