ryder cup 2006 thoughts

dankhank · #1 09-19-2006, 05:04 AM

well the ryder cup is about as fun as it gets for golf fans. i haven't been following golf closely since the pga championship, but i think i will watch all the coverage and place several bets after watching how individual players adjust to the surroundings on day one.

the u.s. is almost always a big favorite heading into the ryder cup, and then it is always closely contested. this year the europeans are actually the favorites due to home course advantage, good form on their side, and bettors slowly coming to the realization that tiger and phil just don't take it as seriously or focus as much as they do in majors. tiger is 7-11-2 lifetime, which is crazy for a player of his ability. last ryder cup phil switched to new equipment a few weeks before, and this year he is the only player on the team to not compete in september, opting to take a break instead. tiger strangely lost 4&3 last week in the hsbc match play to shaun micheel, who is not on the u.s. team.

i see two pretty good ryder cup bets out there right now and am curious to hear what others think. the first bet in particular i think people should get down on.

the bet is on bowmans under golf futures. it is a bet on which team will have the player with the most points in the ryder cup. europe is a +130 dog, presumably on the expectation that tiger will dominate. i think some euros have a good chance of beating tigers total. sergio has a great ryder cup record, has played well this year, and traditionaly teams with luke donald in foursomes and lee westwood in fourball. garcia is 6-0-0 lifetime in foursomes (alternate shot). donald could also be top scorer with his garcia pairing and sweet swing, and montgomerie has led the way before too. all in all, with +130 as a price, i have bet the max on this twice. 10 units to win 13.

i also like europe -106 to win at matchbook, for 2.5 units. note that this bet loses if the match is a draw.

ytd record (thru us open):
18-19 -0.5 units matchups
2-4 -1.71 units props

edited title at DankHank's request -P

Ortho · #2 09-19-2006, 05:43 AM

I had intended to make this witty somehow, with some comment about Mcfly and the almanac:

Ryder Cup 2004 results
RESULT: USA 9½-18½ EUROPE.
Europe win Ryder Cup

---------------

Anyway, I think that fading Tiger is key to betting on this, and although I like your Bowmans prop I do not know how well the rest of the US team is playing. The Ryder Cup is a major sporting event here; it's halfway between being an event that golf fans are up for and one that the general public is interested in. It's as big as any of the majors in terms of coverage. The sense that I get is that this isn't that important in America outside of golf fans but I could of course be way wrong about that.

Anyway, the point of that is that from here it looks like the Europeans are motivated to a level that the Americans can't really get to. I think that this is really important in matchplay golf, and especially in these weird pairs events that they never otherwise play. Add to that the fact that Tiger has done notoriously badly in Ryder Cup matches, but that the bookies are still giving him huge line respect because he's Tiger, and I really like Europe on the outright and Tiger and Pal's opponents in the doubles matches. It's like fading Federer on clay, imo. This may be the time that Tiger breaks out, plays like Tiger, and leads the USA to the cup, but I would rather bet on him being ordinary this week. He had that tournament winning streak, has been having a holiday (spotted at the US Open tennis and Chelsea v Liverpool on Sunday), the gossip was that he showed up late during their big practice getaway at the K-Club a few weeks ago, there are the long-standing rumours of team acrimony, he's just played badly and tired in a matchplay event, and even in tournaments he dominates he's a known slow-starter. This is a different event, and if he's still getting line respect like it's the Masters, I'll happily take his opponent until he shows that he is up for this.

dankhank · #3 09-19-2006, 06:25 AM

ok so i don't know what year it is, so what

i'm adding winning team total under 16.5 -130 to win 3 units at bowmans. in the ten matches in the modern era it has only gone over once, last year. likelihood of under is increased since linesmakers clearly expect a tight match, with europe a -115 favorite on average at books.

freewheeler · #4 09-19-2006, 09:54 AM

My thoughts:

DON'T FADE TIGER

Yes, his Ryder Cup record is puzzling. But that's not enough reason for me. The comparison to Federer on clay does not fit for me. Tiger is head and shoulders above the next best player AND a superb match-play player. I think the fact that the Europeans are actually favored for a change bodes well for the Americans.

Thremp · #5 09-19-2006, 01:09 PM

Matchplay is such a crapshoot.

pokergrader · #6 09-19-2006, 03:12 PM

BetWWTS has europe at +100.

freewheeler · #7 09-22-2006, 11:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My thoughts:

FADE TIGER

His Ryder Cup record is puzzling. I think the fact that the Europeans are actually favored for a change is an indication that they will win again.

[/ QUOTE ]

fmp

dankhank · #8 09-23-2006, 06:19 PM

adding singles matches (pinnacle)

westwood -106 over dimarco - 106 to win 100
henry -121 over mcginley - 121 to win 100
campbell +140 over donald - 71 to win 100

pinny's lines have been tight for a lot of the matchups. i don't love these plays either if they move against the target numbers.

main proposition bet a lock with garcia clinching top scorer. he played brilliantly all four matches, better than i could've even hoped. europe has dominated score-wise, but most matches have been tightly contested and pretty well played. so i think siding with a few americans tomorow is a decent subset.

NajdorfDefense · #9 09-19-2006, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
ok so i don't know what year it is, so what

i'm adding winning team total under 16.5 -130 to win 3 units at bowmans. in the ten matches in the modern era it has only gone over once, last year. likelihood of under is increased since linesmakers clearly expect a tight match, with europe a -115 favorite on average at books.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is a fantastic pick.

dankhank · #10 09-19-2006, 05:05 PM

the under is up to -165 and i think most value is gone.

the top scorer prop is at +123 and imo still has value. i may have overstated this one a little, but i can't remember a ryder cup where the winning team didn't have the top scorer. golfing gods has the top scorer (individual) odds at woods +550, furyk +800, garcia +800, donald +1000, mickelson +1000, monty +1300, etc.

europe to win at +100 is a good bet. it can actually be scalped with US +138 and draw +1200 for a small profit, for further proof of the number's quality.