$24+$2 25k Guarantee Hand; Should I Believe Him?

[blankoblanco]

Started with about 1100 players, down to around 400 and top 180 get paid.

Not much in the way of reads on the player as far as how villain plays postflop. Preflop he seems fairly tight. Hasn't raised often, so I'm putting him on the very general range of a pair 77+ or AJ+. I've been involved in a pretty high amount of hands, but usually raising, not calling raises.

Full Tilt Poker Game #1746566213: $25,000 Guarantee (12534859), Table 1 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:12:58 ET - 2007/02/06
Seat 1: ABory (3,440)
Seat 2: GoBucks1969 (1,765)
Seat 3: combuboom (2,260)
Seat 4: sopranik (3,765)
Seat 5: -mwgh- (1,845)
Seat 6: Pyker7 (5,307)
Seat 7: WhiteRiverInn (1,530)
Seat 8: Ralphie77 (1,970)
Seat 9: Iwinn (11,913), is sitting out
combuboom posts the small blind of 60
sopranik posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [9c 9s]
-mwgh- folds
Pyker7 raises to 420
WhiteRiverInn folds
Ralphie77 folds
Iwinn folds
ABory folds
GoBucks1969 folds
combuboom calls 360
sopranik folds
*** FLOP *** [5s Jc 4c]
combuboom checks
Pyker7 bets 2,520
combuboom ?

[Cornell Fiji]

Beat him into the pot.

edit: and shaun is correct. This is a basic preflop shove. A fold might even be better than a call preflop and there is no way that this is a fold

[shaundeeb]

don't flat call PF shove.

[blankoblanco]

Is this really a standard PF shove? I was so on the fence with 99... with TT I probably shove, but it just seemed so borderline. Since he's not loose with his preflop requirements, I don't know how much fold equity I really have, and it's a full table. I was just trying to be a bit cautious and wanted to look for a non-dangerous flop. If it comes with an A/two overcards, I can get away from it, especially since I don't think he has lower pairs here very often, probably 88 and maybe 77, but from watching him, I think he's almost always limping the smallers.

Is this a really bad idea and if so, why?

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]

Is this a really bad idea and if so, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. He will often fold preflop with AJ/AQ/AK/TT/JJ when he has correct odds to call your push with those hands.

If you think that he would call your push with AK/AQ then you are losing value from the times that the flop is J42 and you bet and he folds.

You do NOT want to avoid flips when you have 99 and he has AK. You want to get your money in with the best of it. Do not avoid flips

When there is a safe flop you are still behind to his overpair and you are going to get stacked anyway or you will let him off the hook cheeply with a hand worse than yours.

Pf is a very standard push.

[blankoblanco]

I see what you mean. Thanks for advice. FWIW, I didn't believe him and I called. He had aces, so I guess I was screwed either way.