new live 5-5 plo game at bike...big hand

[Big Dave D]

Like a lot of big bet games, the play on all the streets is pretty debatable. Certainly your way is not a bad way, mostly. The turn is probably the most debatable play. Although you end up with a compulsory call eventually, you have put in just under 3k in a pretty bad spot. Imagine, just hypothetically, if the button had passed and the UTG had check raised you allin instead. You would have ended up calling with one out.

The real problem is preflop. You just don't need to play so tricky/creative against bad players. Deception value based on preflop action is mostly overrated in PLO anyway, and against bad players it is just wasted end of story. Pass prelop.

gl

bdd

[iggymcfly]

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id actually like to hear your analysis...

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OK.

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Fold preflop,

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I'd think this one's fairly obvious. You're 7 buy-ins deep and you've got a hand that's almost impossible to make the nuts with. A4x is the only flop that gives you a decent wrap, and you're going to be on the wrong end of any set-over-set confrontations unless someone has the case two deuces on an x32 flop. This is a hand I'd usually open-fold in the CO with 100 BB. Playing it this deep in a multi-way pot is suicide.


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bet flop,

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You've got a very strong hand, you're second to last to act, and you're playing with a bunch of loose-passive live players. Furthermore, the player behind you doesn't even have the betting lead.

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fold to bet and raise.

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You're now behind your opponents' ranges. Saying the check/raiser can have "any two pair" is extremely optimistic. He might have top two occasionally, but it will usually be a set.


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Check turn and if you do bet, fold to the raise.

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The player behind you is strongly giving evidence of a draw. There was no flush draw on the flop and the most likely open-ender got there as did the good wraps. You are giving away the entire value of your hand (when it's even live) by making it a near break-even decision between a fold and a call when it's raised behind you (which it will be over 50% of the time IMO).

I don't want to recalculate the pot odds, but I think I figured that with 7/38 cards being outs for you, you were just barely short of the direct odds to call and I think you lose more value from the times you're against JJJ, then you gain in the rare circumstances where weaker hands raise you.

[emil3000]

I definitely agree with iggy here.
I really dislike a turn bet. You just don't figure to be ahead, and you could potentially be in terrible shape.

[grizy]

I am OKAY with teh call since you'll get to see UTG react to button on the flop first. I wouldn't make the call myself though given the deep stacks.

Bet flop. Probable best hand and you can't really count on button to bet the hand for you with two others in the hand. C/R is okay some of the time but not my default.

I llike folding on the flop after UTG raised although calling to reevaluate turn is okay here. If button folds, I'd bet any turn (amount depends on what turn card is). If button calls, then I am probably done with the hand (button is likely to call with any draw, that's why I prefer folding here). If button is laggy and capable of pushing with backdoor flush + overpair + OPESDs... fold, you can get squeezed here badly a lot.

Turn bet is bad (probably the worst part about the hand in my opinion). You're getting no value here from anything worse and very likely putting yourself in a real bad spot.

Using your own analysis, UTG has at least two pairs or a premium draw. two pairs has 4 outs and won't call you so there is no value. The premium draws on a rainbow board just hit. If button folds to your bet, it is still not certain UTG will fold a higher set but it is almost certain he'd fold pairs so there is questionable fold equity here.

On the other hand, if you get raised... you just stuck in a lot of money as a rather big dog.

I'd call turn raise although it's probably a leak in my game.

[Perestroika]

Limon, when you bet the turn were you betting for value or as a bluff?

[gergery]

i don't mind preflop, but my thinking is more that i'm going to try and isolate and take it away from UTG, and less about what cards i have. You really can't play a big pot 7 BI deep with those cards even if you hit your hand, so your cards are more backup/safety net.

Flop I think c-r or lead is fine. Most players w big pairs will bet on that kind of board, so i like check-raise. When UTG pops it, i call. You are dead to a set, likely a modest favorite to a wrap, and he'll likely fold twopair if you raise.

Turn i check as its too likely one of them hit w 9T. They are betting and calling with something here after all.

-g

[blopp]

Fold preflop, as igg said hard to get the nuts, and u cant stack off with bottom set happily oterwise. + The hand leaves u in nasty spots like this where you have no cluw what to do. Esp this deep. The downside if being oversetted if u are 100-200bb deep live isnt that bad, and you can play your sets much more strongly.

Generally i need JJxx or bether to play for set, but I obvs play 8875, 9910J stuff too.

Turn is a bluff. You bet when the most obvs draw hits.

[RoundTower]

when you give a post with such strict reads on players, you should expect to get responses based on those reads. In this case that hasn't happened: you got responses based on normal online players.

If your reads are 100% correct then go with the line you took, because you are getting money in good. If your reads are crippled because this is not your normal game, then go with the line everyone else gives (folding a lot). If it is somewhere in between, use your judgement: that is where you make your money, where the decisions are not clear.

[cmyr]

Something i'll add is that, in the game as described, I would raise this hand from the co (at least something), but I would seriously consider folding to the 3bet from the button. We no longer have the betting lead, and we are playing OOP not only with a hand we know isn't the best, but that isn't going to hit many flops. Playing big pots deep oop without the betting lead is very very rarely +ev.

[limon]

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i don't mind preflop, but my thinking is more that i'm going to try and isolate and take it away from UTG, and less about what cards i have. You really can't play a big pot 7 BI deep with those cards even if you hit your hand, so your cards are more backup/safety net.

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this is what i was thinking and how i have always played, seems it is really disliked here (iggy?). dont people feel you need to play aggressive w/ a wide range against a single limper from late pos? for value and for meta game/advertisement purposes?