|
|
#222
07-25-2007, 12:15 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: $3 Million Downsizing.............
Huh? I'm not saying BT is a degen.
What I'm talking about is the ability to judge catastrophic risk. It's a very tricky skill, and almost no one gets it right the first time. I've never met, or ever even heard of anyone who got it right the first time. There are two games going on: there is BT's game, his ability to consistently play his best against a variety of opponent skills, styles, personalities, a variety of stakes, and a variety of variance players, like Farha. Then there is the metagame. There is his ability to judge whether his bankroll swings have become too dangerous for the velocity of money he is putting at risk. It very important to keep one truth of trading/poker in mind at all times: if you are on a serious downswing, and you put it down to poor play which can not be remedied, and you give up, you are probably finished as a professional at that level (or at least for a number of years). By giving up, you have so severely damage your ego-thought-process that psychologically you no longer can think clearly when playing at those stakes. Breaks are an option, as are different opponents, different venues, etc. But there really is only one way to re-establish your ego and confidence without continuing the excessive risk: and that is drastically lower your $ velocity, wait until you start winning consistently, regain your confidence. This takes time, a lot of time, maybe a year or more, and it is boring and humbling compared to playing at the higher levels. You are probably thinking, "BT is certainly capable of this". My argument is that he is, but because he's never gone broke, he probably doesn't have enough inner awareness of how dangerous the situation has become. Most likely he will do everything possible to improve his game, but keep on playing at the same $ velocity, as his perception will be that his downswing is a function of his play, and not random forces. What destroys traders/gamesmen is being hit with a streak of randomness at a $ velocity that is excessive for your bankroll, doing everything you can to improve your trading/game, losing more because the random downstreak continues, and damaging your ego/confidence to the point where your game does fall apart. After playing these huge games, after living in that world, after being acknowledged as the best by so many people, do you really think BT is going to drop down to 10/20 (or somewhere in that neighborhood) for a year if his swings get up towards $10M ? I don't think he will. I think he'll keep on fighting at the same $ velocity and end up busto in the process. Huh? I'm not saying BT is a degen. What I'm talking about is the ability to judge catastrophic risk. It's a very tricky skill, and almost no one gets it right the first time. I've never met, or ever even heard of anyone who got it right the first time. There are two games going on: there is BT's game, his ability to consistently play his best against a variety of opponent skills, styles, personalities, a variety of stakes, and a variety of variance players, like Farha. Then there is the metagame. There is his ability to judge whether his bankroll swings have become too dangerous for the velocity of money he is putting at risk. It very important to keep one truth of trading/poker in mind at all times: if you are on a serious downswing, and you put it down to poor play which can not be remedied, and you give up, you are probably finished as a professional at that level (or at least for a number of years). By giving up, you have so severely damage your ego-thought-process that psychologically you no longer can think clearly when playing at those stakes. Breaks are an option, as are different opponents, different venues, etc. But there really is only one way to re-establish your ego and confidence without continuing the excessive risk: and that is drastically lower your $ velocity, wait until you start winning consistently, regain your confidence. This takes time, a lot of time, maybe a year or more, and it is boring and humbling compared to playing at the higher levels. You are probably thinking, "BT is certainly capable of this". My argument is that he is, but because he's never gone broke, he probably doesn't have enough inner awareness of how dangerous the situation has become. Most likely he will do everything possible to improve his game, but keep on playing at the same $ velocity, as his perception will be that his downswing is a function of his play, and not random forces. What destroys traders/gamesmen is being hit with a streak of randomness at a $ velocity that is excessive for your bankroll, doing everything you can to improve your trading/game, losing more because the random downstreak continues, and damaging your ego/confidence to the point where your game does fall apart. After playing these huge games, after living in that world, after being acknowledged as the best by so many people, do you really think BT is going to drop down to 10/20 (or somewhere in that neighborhood) for a year if his swings get up towards $10M ? I don't think he will. I think he'll keep on fighting at the same $ velocity and end up busto in the process. Huh? I'm not saying BT is a degen. What I'm talking about is the ability to judge catastrophic risk. It's a very tricky skill, and almost no one gets it right the first time. I've never met, or ever even heard of anyone who got it right the first time. There are two games going on: there is BT's game, his ability to consistently play his best against a variety of opponent skills, styles, personalities, a variety of stakes, and a variety of variance players, like Farha. Then there is the metagame. There is his ability to judge whether his bankroll swings have become too dangerous for the velocity of money he is putting at risk. It very important to keep one truth of trading/poker in mind at all times: if you are on a serious downswing, and you put it down to poor play which can not be remedied, and you give up, you are probably finished as a professional at that level (or at least for a number of years). By giving up, you have so severely damage your ego-thought-process that psychologically you no longer can think clearly when playing at those stakes. Breaks are an option, as are different opponents, different venues, etc. But there really is only one way to re-establish your ego and confidence without continuing the excessive risk: and that is drastically lower your $ velocity, wait until you start winning consistently, regain your confidence. This takes time, a lot of time, maybe a year or more, and it is boring and humbling compared to playing at the higher levels. You are probably thinking, "BT is certainly capable of this". My argument is that he is, but because he's never gone broke, he probably doesn't have enough inner awareness of how dangerous the situation has become. Most likely he will do everything possible to improve his game, but keep on playing at the same $ velocity, as his perception will be that his downswing is a function of his play, and not random forces. What destroys traders/gamesmen is being hit with a streak of randomness at a $ velocity that is excessive for your bankroll, doing everything you can to improve your trading/game, losing more because the random downstreak continues, and damaging your ego/confidence to the point where your game does fall apart. After playing these huge games, after living in that world, after being acknowledged as the best by so many people, do you really think BT is going to drop down to 10/20 (or somewhere in that neighborhood) for a year if his swings get up towards $10M ? I don't think he will. I think he'll keep on fighting at the same $ velocity and end up busto in the process. Huh? I'm not saying BT is a degen. What I'm talking about is the ability to judge catastrophic risk. It's a very tricky skill, and almost no one gets it right the first time. I've never met, or ever even heard of anyone who got it right the first time. There are two games going on: there is BT's game, his ability to consistently play his best against a variety of opponent skills, styles, personalities, a variety of stakes, and a variety of variance players, like Farha. Then there is the metagame. There is his ability to judge whether his bankroll swings have become too dangerous for the velocity of money he is putting at risk. It very important to keep one truth of trading/poker in mind at all times: if you are on a serious downswing, and you put it down to poor play which can not be remedied, and you give up, you are probably finished as a professional at that level (or at least for a number of years). By giving up, you have so severely damage your ego-thought-process that psychologically you no longer can think clearly when playing at those stakes. Breaks are an option, as are different opponents, different venues, etc. But there really is only one way to re-establish your ego and confidence without continuing the excessive risk: and that is drastically lower your $ velocity, wait until you start winning consistently, regain your confidence. This takes time, a lot of time, maybe a year or more, and it is boring and humbling compared to playing at the higher levels. You are probably thinking, "BT is certainly capable of this". My argument is that he is, but because he's never gone broke, he probably doesn't have enough inner awareness of how dangerous the situation has become. Most likely he will do everything possible to improve his game, but keep on playing at the same $ velocity, as his perception will be that his downswing is a function of his play, and not random forces. What destroys traders/gamesmen is being hit with a streak of randomness at a $ velocity that is excessive for your bankroll, doing everything you can to improve your trading/game, losing more because the random downstreak continues, and damaging your ego/confidence to the point where your game does fall apart. After playing these huge games, after living in that world, after being acknowledged as the best by so many people, do you really think BT is going to drop down to 10/20 (or somewhere in that neighborhood) for a year if his swings get up towards $10M ? I don't think he will. I think he'll keep on fighting at the same $ velocity and end up busto in the process. Huh? I'm not saying BT is a degen. What I'm talking about is the ability to judge catastrophic risk. It's a very tricky skill, and almost no one gets it right the first time. I've never met, or ever even heard of anyone who got it right the first time. There are two games going on: there is BT's game, his ability to consistently play his best against a variety of opponent skills, styles, personalities, a variety of stakes, and a variety of variance players, like Farha. Then there is the metagame. There is his ability to judge whether his bankroll swings have become too dangerous for the velocity of money he is putting at risk. It very important to keep one truth of trading/poker in mind at all times: if you are on a serious downswing, and you put it down to poor play which can not be remedied, and you give up, you are probably finished as a professional at that level (or at least for a number of years). By giving up, you have so severely damage your ego-thought-process that psychologically you no longer can think clearly when playing at those stakes. Breaks are an option, as are different opponents, different venues, etc. But there really is only one way to re-establish your ego and confidence without continuing the excessive risk: and that is drastically lower your $ velocity, wait until you start winning consistently, regain your confidence. This takes time, a lot of time, maybe a year or more, and it is boring and humbling compared to playing at the higher levels. You are probably thinking, "BT is certainly capable of this". My argument is that he is, but because he's never gone broke, he probably doesn't have enough inner awareness of how dangerous the situation has become. Most likely he will do everything possible to improve his game, but keep on playing at the same $ velocity, as his perception will be that his downswing is a function of his play, and not random forces. What destroys traders/gamesmen is being hit with a streak of randomness at a $ velocity that is excessive for your bankroll, doing everything you can to improve your trading/game, losing more because the random downstreak continues, and damaging your ego/confidence to the point where your game does fall apart. After playing these huge games, after living in that world, after being acknowledged as the best by so many people, do you really think BT is going to drop down to 10/20 (or somewhere in that neighborhood) for a year if his swings get up towards $10M ? I don't think he will. I think he'll keep on fighting at the same $ velocity and end up busto in the process. Huh? I'm not saying BT is a degen. What I'm talking about is the ability to judge catastrophic risk. It's a very tricky skill, and almost no one gets it right the first time. I've never met, or ever even heard of anyone who got it right the first time. There are two games going on: there is BT's game, his ability to consistently play his best against a variety of opponent skills, styles, personalities, a variety of stakes, and a variety of variance players, like Farha. Then there is the metagame. There is his ability to judge whether his bankroll swings have become too dangerous for the velocity of money he is putting at risk. It very important to keep one truth of trading/poker in mind at all times: if you are on a serious downswing, and you put it down to poor play which can not be remedied, and you give up, you are probably finished as a professional at that level (or at least for a number of years). By giving up, you have so severely damage your ego-thought-process that psychologically you no longer can think clearly when playing at those stakes. Breaks are an option, as are different opponents, different venues, etc. But there really is only one way to re-establish your ego and confidence without continuing the excessive risk: and that is drastically lower your $ velocity, wait until you start winning consistently, regain your confidence. This takes time, a lot of time, maybe a year or more, and it is boring and humbling compared to playing at the higher levels. You are probably thinking, "BT is certainly capable of this". My argument is that he is, but because he's never gone broke, he probably doesn't have enough inner awareness of how dangerous the situation has become. Most likely he will do everything possible to improve his game, but keep on playing at the same $ velocity, as his perception will be that his downswing is a function of his play, and not random forces. What destroys traders/gamesmen is being hit with a streak of randomness at a $ velocity that is excessive for your bankroll, doing everything you can to improve your trading/game, losing more because the random downstreak continues, and damaging your ego/confidence to the point where your game does fall apart. After playing these huge games, after living in that world, after being acknowledged as the best by so many people, do you really think BT is going to drop down to 10/20 (or somewhere in that neighborhood) for a year if his swings get up towards $10M ? I don't think he will. I think he'll keep on fighting at the same $ velocity and end up busto in the process. 
|
|
#225
07-25-2007, 12:19 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $3 Million Downsizing.............
wtf
|
|
#228
07-25-2007, 12:51 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $3 Million Downsizing.............
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I understand his point fine. What he ignores is that BT can do stuff like "stop playing" and "drop down" before variance bustos his roll away. [/ QUOTE ] Ahh, but most likely he won't. [/ QUOTE ] This is why people are finding you annoying. You patronizingly assume that Brian is a helpless degen because he plays poker and has an ego. Well some of us know tons of poker players, and they are not all created equal with respect to risk-aversion. Brian is simply not a very degen kind of guy. I don't care enough to quote details from his blog entries that support this, but if you have been following his history it's pretty clear. And btw I was one of the first people to call Brian out for overestimating the correlation between skill and results. (This was in the context of his PLO downswing.) In fact I completely agree with you in that regard. But what you don't realize is that one can have misconceptions about variance while still minimizing risk of ruin simply by firmly adhering to bankroll rules. I guess only time will tell but I really think you have a bad read on Brian. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? I'm not saying BT is a degen. What I'm talking about is the ability to judge catastrophic risk. It's a very tricky skill, and almost no one gets it right the first time. I've never met, or ever even heard of anyone who got it right the first time. There are two games going on: there is BT's game, his ability to consistently play his best against a variety of opponent skills, styles, personalities, a variety of stakes, and a variety of variance players, like Farha. Then there is the metagame. There is his ability to judge whether his bankroll swings have become too dangerous for the velocity of money he is putting at risk. It very important to keep one truth of trading/poker in mind at all times: if you are on a serious downswing, and you put it down to poor play which can not be remedied, and you give up, you are probably finished as a professional at that level (or at least for a number of years). By giving up, you have so severely damage your ego-thought-process that psychologically you no longer can think clearly when playing at those stakes. Breaks are an option, as are different opponents, different venues, etc. But there really is only one way to re-establish your ego and confidence without continuing the excessive risk: and that is drastically lower your $ velocity, wait until you start winning consistently, regain your confidence. This takes time, a lot of time, maybe a year or more, and it is boring and humbling compared to playing at the higher levels. You are probably thinking, "BT is certainly capable of this". My argument is that he is, but because he's never gone broke, he probably doesn't have enough inner awareness of how dangerous the situation has become. Most likely he will do everything possible to improve his game, but keep on playing at the same $ velocity, as his perception will be that his downswing is a function of his play, and not random forces. What destroys traders/gamesmen is being hit with a streak of randomness at a $ velocity that is excessive for your bankroll, doing everything you can to improve your trading/game, losing more because the random downstreak continues, and damaging your ego/confidence to the point where your game does fall apart. After playing these huge games, after living in that world, after being acknowledged as the best by so many people, do you really think BT is going to drop down to 10/20 (or somewhere in that neighborhood) for a year if his swings get up towards $10M ? I don't think he will. I think he'll keep on fighting at the same $ velocity and end up busto in the process. [/ QUOTE ] I don't get how a person like yourself who seems pretty fond of statistical data can give a psychological model that relies on so many assumptions about the person you don't actually know. If anything, you could establish some kind of expectation based on previous cases where people found themselves in similar situations. Next you could formulate a 'most probable' outcome solely on that data alone and set an over/under line within reasonable limits based on what you've read about brian in his blogs. I doubt any scenario that relies on behavioural patterns for an extented period of time would ever exceed maybe more than 20-30%. Look at it this way. Let's say you are a brilliant psychologist who would be talented enough to pinpoint the most probable decision one person would make under any given circumstance and that probability would be as ridicilously high as 90%.(wich i think it will never ever be) Even when a person has only five different but connected decisions(wich is reallly small) to make in a certain timeframe the probability of your scenario being the right prediction would only be 59%. That number alone humbles me enough to always start my reasoning with "I think there is a fair chance that...." when i start thinking about other peoples lives and the turnout of multiple actions they face.
|
|
#229
07-25-2007, 12:59 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $3 Million Downsizing.............
wtf I say Brian is not busto and will not go busto and if I'm right I'm smarter than all the people that thought he would. If not I'll have to get another 2+2 screenname to hide my shame.
He is good at poker. He wins monies. Lots. I hope he doesn't read this thread [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] There's [censored] room to move as a fry cook. I could be manager in two years. King. God.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
