AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line

Goodnews · #1 10-22-2007, 11:23 PM

Villain's stats hover in the 18.75/6.25/0.67 over 16 hands (not a significant dataset but helped me make my decision on the river). He didn't seem out of line in any of the hands I saw him involved in.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (5.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

I obviously don't like this river, and it is difficult for me to put him on a hand he, with his VPIP so low, will call a river bet but not raise me with a better hand.

Just wondering if this should have been a c/f instead of a c/c. Can't really justify hoping he would bluff at this river given the low AF.

knockonwood · #2 10-22-2007, 11:34 PM

There is no way you can fold this. I would bet out here against most players. He either needs an 10,8 for a straight (no chance), KT (thats a very fishy CC), AJ, A9,A7 for 2 pair (fishy CC's again). AQ beats us. Yep, bet for value.

macdaddy991 · #3 10-22-2007, 11:36 PM

Why didn't you just bet the river? If you get raised, you cannot think that TPTK is good with his low aggression factor. If you planned on calling if he bet anyway, then why not bet out. If he is calling you with a weak ace, then you will make more value on your hand, if he raises, then you can most likely fold. (given your read)

DavidSRT · #4 10-22-2007, 11:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way you can fold this. I would bet out here against most players. He either needs an 10,8 for a straight (no chance), KT (thats a very fishy CC), AJ, A9,A7 for 2 pair (fishy CC's again). AQ beats us. Yep, bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Xylocain · #5 10-22-2007, 11:41 PM

As for the agression factor ... you realise its based on 3 hands right and he raised 1 of them? Vil probably called like 2 streets or something.

You cannot possibly start thinking of folding TPTK based on this AF.

If you check it is to induce a bluff from a busted draw.

macdaddy991 · #6 10-22-2007, 11:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As for the agression factor ... you realise its based on 3 hands right and he raised 1 of them? Vil probably called like 2 streets or something.

You cannot possibly start thinking of folding TPTK based on the AF.

If you check it is to induce a bluff from a busted draw.

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I did not say that I would fold there, unless those stats were over a MUCH higher sample. I was merely responding to the OP who seemed pretty confident on his read.

Goodnews · #7 10-22-2007, 11:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you just bet the river? If you get raised, you cannot think that TPTK is good with his low aggression factor. If you planned on calling if he bet anyway, then why not bet out. If he is calling you with a weak ace, then you will make more value on your hand, if he raises, then you can most likely fold. (given your read)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the bolded parts, but not the rest. The rest of the post does not take into account the low VPIP.

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way you can fold this. I would bet out here against most players. He either needs an 10,8 for a straight (no chance), KT (thats a very fishy CC), AJ, A9,A7 for 2 pair (fishy CC's again). AQ beats us. Yep, bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

The hand ranges you put him on (mainly the two pair hands) with the exception of AJs are fishy CC pf and would be surprised to see that in showdown. I excluded AJs from his range after I eliminated the fact that I would have probably seen aggression on the turn.

The question is, what hand range does a tight player smooth call preflop but shows no aggression on the flop and turn? How does that hand range match up given the river? Do I bet for value here?

I don't see a weaker ace that can CC preflop that I can beat here save ATo which I don't consider given the tightness of our Villain.

I have some analysis to do before bed. Before I post the results I'd like to see more discussion.

Edit: Of course I have to trust the stats as that is the really the only piece of information that I have, along with my lack of notes due to his spectacularly unimaginative play and how this hand has played out.

macdaddy991 · #8 10-23-2007, 12:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you just bet the river? If you get raised, you cannot think that TPTK is good with his low aggression factor. If you planned on calling if he bet anyway, then why not bet out. If he is calling you with a weak ace, then you will make more value on your hand, if he raises, then you can most likely fold. (given your read)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the bolded parts, but not the rest. The rest of the post does not take into account the low VPIP.

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I think that your stats on this player really can't have much to do with it in this situation because you only have sixteen hands on him. His VPIP could be much higher or much lower, but you don't have enough of a sample size to determine either way.

Unless I missed something in your post, I think you need to look at this hand from the perspective that he is an unknown bad low limit player and bet the river for value.

kerowo · #9 10-23-2007, 12:11 AM

Goodnews, with only 16 hands for your stat read you don't have a stat read. Trying to do any deep thinking about his hand range isn't worth it because he is basically unknown. There a lot of hands an unknown will call down with and bet when you check here that you beat, so call. You don't have the read to c/f this.

tehox · #10 10-23-2007, 12:20 AM

I think this is a pretty easy bet/call? I agree that stats are meaningless over so few hands, in particualr agression factor. I would only check/call if I think a busted draw is a big part of his range. Check/fold is entirely off the table.