3 hands... should I raise the river?

synbad13 · #1 07-15-2007, 04:16 PM

I'm curious if you feel like these are value raises, or if the possibility of a re-raise is too dangerous.

I can get opponents stats if you want, but how would they change vs. a nit (who probably wont be reraising lightly) vs. a 45/25/5 type player.

Full Tilt 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero ?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero ?

Cap the river? too many str8 possibilities?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero ?

jstill · #2 07-15-2007, 04:37 PM

i dont think any of these are raises, doing so in any is most likely a spew, atleast in my opinion.

hand 1 i think this guy has air, a set or a flush alot with this line (donking into the pf3bettor) so raising vs that range is bad (pay attention to what people donk with in these situations, people have different tendencies), and if hes got a weak pair he probably folds to the raise occasionally.

hand 2 there are 12 worse sets hed play this way perhaps vs like a million flushes so ur probably still an equity dog against his range since 2 pair or less dont seem super likely. Also I think many players are more likely to cr the flop with those, I always do anyways just about rather than the flush turn, altho if they slowplayed the flop they probably still cr any turn. The rest of the time he probably has like the bare A or Kd and cant call a raise anyways. Once u get 3bet still definitely dont cap, sets are now a bit less likely and again I think u were a dog just vs his first river bet.

hand 3 I thikn ur against a boat or AQ way too often to raise, most villains wont 3bet AK KJ or even AA when u raise the T turn (its well within ur range as well as straights) so his range is mostly better hands.

all of these seem like scenarios where worse hands probably dont 3bet ur raise (maybe a worse set will in hand 2 thinking u wouldnt take this line with a flush) so ur offering up odds to ur opponent since u have to call a 3bet, so generally raising costs u 2 bets behind and gains u 1 ahead so u need to win the corresponding percentage or better to make raising a breakeven play.

mvoss · #3 07-15-2007, 05:32 PM

I wouldn't raise any of these, let alone cap the river in hand 2. I also think your turn raise in hand 3 is pretty bad. Villain is never folding here.

sethypooh21 · #4 07-15-2007, 05:38 PM

Hand 1 is the only one that's even close, and I wouldn't without a solid read, and even then, maybe not because I hate taking raise/fold lines.

Turn raise in hand 3 is suicide - what does he 3-bet with PF from the BB that didn't crush this flop? Yes, you have a huge draw, but it still gives you no more than 30% equity (and that's wildly optimistic) here with no chance of folding him out.

goofball · #5 07-15-2007, 09:49 PM

I say

Hand 1 - raise
Hand 2 - raise was good now call the 3town
Hand 3 - raise

BigBadBabar · #6 07-15-2007, 10:10 PM

gosh i raise all 3

yourface · #7 07-15-2007, 10:32 PM

hand 1 raise
hand 2 just call the 3bet
hand 3 don't raise the turn. as played the river is close. if you raise you need to fold to a 3bet

jba · #8 07-15-2007, 10:47 PM

turn raise in hand 3 is really dumb, read his hand. 88/99 is your hope and 99 probably calls and oh yeah you have an eight and a nine in your hand.

i'd raise them all, fold to a 3bet in hand 1 and 3.

sharpie · #9 07-16-2007, 06:35 AM

1) I'd call. I think alot of 2/4 players will get scared on that river with a mid pair putting you on AK.
2) I'd just call the river the first time. I feel like he either has a flush or busted flush draw most of the time.
3) Don't raise the turn. Just call the river. Boats and AQ are a big threat.