All 3 Boston teams winning the championship?? - Page 13

Hurrrr · #**121** 08-08-2007, 03:05 PM

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Red Sox have a chance, but they'd better grt off their donkeys.

Celtics will be competitive in the East, but winning it all even with their big three will be a tall order.

The Patriots are a given. 31 NFL teams are playing for 2nd place.

The Bruins are just sad.

If anyone cares, the Revs actually have a good chance.

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I'm glad you Pats fans are that confident before 1 game has even been played. Have you heard of injuries? Or luck?

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Maybe you've never heard of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick with weapons.

capone0 · #**122** 08-08-2007, 03:59 PM

Cause every team that adds a ton of "star-power" wins titles (see the Yankees). Yes the Pats should be favorites, but to say that it's already in the bag when so many things can happen over the season, is pretty pompus. Brady could get hurt, Moss might not be that great (he should be though), their secondary might be holding out or get hurt (Harrison). Who knows what's going to happen. There are still potentially 19 or 20 games to be played yet, the Pats will just crush as I quoted, please.

kyro · #**123** 08-08-2007, 04:05 PM

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Cause every team that adds a ton of "star-power" wins titles (see the Yankees). Yes the Pats should be favorites, but to say that it's already in the bag when so many things can happen over the season, is pretty pompus. Brady could get hurt, Moss might not be that great (he should be though), their secondary might be holding out or get hurt (Harrison). Who knows what's going to happen. There are still potentially 19 or 20 games to be played yet, the Pats will just crush as I quoted, please.

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lol

Take homerism less srsly plz.

benza13 · #**124** 08-08-2007, 04:30 PM

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Cause every team that adds a ton of "star-power" wins titles (see the Yankees). Yes the Pats should be favorites, but to say that it's already in the bag when so many things can happen over the season, is pretty pompus. Brady could get hurt, Moss might not be that great (he should be though), their secondary might be holding out or get hurt (Harrison). Who knows what's going to happen. There are still potentially 19 or 20 games to be played yet, the Pats will just crush as I quoted, please.

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I think this is all that anyone with a brain is saying. Please to be ignoring E-peen as the voice of Boston fans.

Kos13 · #**125** 08-08-2007, 04:44 PM

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I'm quite confident that when October rolls around, you won't see nearly as much Snyder, Del Carmen, Tavares, Pena, Cora, and Hinske as you've seen in the past two months while they've been resting on their huge cushion and hanging up their ~.500 numbers. Instead, it will be the relatively rested A-Team.

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You will also see everybody else's A-Team, so that doesn't really help.

My numbers came from a pretty iffy calculation from the Adjusted Standings, but I stand by them as a rough approximation. You're obviously a Sox fan, so I think you're biased. The Sox are probably the best team in baseball, but they certainly aren't head and shoulders above everybody else. ANYBODY can win a 5 game series or a 7 game series. You can make your own odds, but just last year, we saw the 8th best playoff team win it all. It's a crapshoot, man. I stick by 6/1.

kyro · #**126** 08-08-2007, 05:01 PM

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I see it as something like 53% to win in the first round, 55% in the ALCS, and 58% to win the World Series.

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I used to be a bookmaker offshore and in Las Vegas, and I would've been out of a job pretty quick if I thought this Red Sox team only had a 53% chance of beating a wild-card team in a single game, let alone a five-game series with home-ice advantage.

Not to whip out my e-penis or anything, but I'll lay all the -120 you want on the Sox in the first round, and all the -150 you want on any other rounds they play.

I'm quite confident that when October rolls around, you won't see nearly as much Snyder, Del Carmen, Tavares, Pena, Cora, and Hinske as you've seen in the past two months while they've been resting on their huge cushion and hanging up their ~.500 numbers. Instead, it will be the relatively rested A-Team.

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I may be simplifying this way too much, but let's assume the Sox are a ~.625 team and the WC team they would face is around .570ish. I think these are relatively fair numbers.

The Sox would have a .625/(.625+.570) = .523 chance of winning a game played at a neutral field...right?

kyro · #**127** 08-08-2007, 05:05 PM

also, epipen is making me hate myself as a boston sports fan.

Kos13 · #**128** 08-08-2007, 05:16 PM

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I may be simplifying this way too much, but let's assume the Sox are a ~.625 team and the WC team they would face is around .570ish. I think these are relatively fair numbers.

The Sox would have a .625/(.625+.570) = .523 chance of winning a game played at a neutral field...right?

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Yeah, this is pretty much what I used, though I did it by adjusted wins, and I came out with ~.53. Even if you make one extra home game a huge factor, it can't be more than 55%.

youtalkfunny · #**129** 08-08-2007, 05:20 PM

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It's a crapshoot, man. I stick by 6/1.

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Eight teams make the playoffs. If they all had an equal chance to win, they'd all be 7-to-1 (7 losers, 1 winner). You're telling me the favorite shouldn't be any less than 6-to-1???

I'll leave the BP stats to guys like you. You leave the oddsmaking to guys like me.

I may be biased, but my bias is from my bookmaking experience. I learned early on that newb oddsmakers tend to be afraid to make the favorites "big" enough. They give the dogs too much credit. For example, when the best team in the NFL is hosting the worst team in a regular season game, the new guy, when asked for his number, will usually say something like 10-13, when the line really should be closer to 17½-20.

As a bookmaker, if you don't make your players pay through the nose to get the best team on their side, then you'll be broke pretty quick.

Kos13 · #**130** 08-08-2007, 06:51 PM

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Eight teams make the playoffs. If they all had an equal chance to win, they'd all be 7-to-1 (7 losers, 1 winner). You're telling me the favorite shouldn't be any less than 6-to-1???

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Yeah, pretty much. IMO, it's like having TT vs. AKs three times. The WS champ has to win all three times, and even with TT every time, that's not easy.

If Boston was in the NL, they'd have a better shot. I really think you're making Boston too big of a favorite, though...the AL is tough.

EDIT: I trust you on the lines. I'm just saying that, if I had to bet on the Red Sox winning it all, I personally wouldn't take less than 6/1.