A tough one (for PJ even though he'll probably hate it)

[Dagger78]

Why the flop check?

Isn't he going to generally C/F two non ace overcards here(KJ, QJ types)

I hate the flop check just slightly more than the turn check. Which I also hate, but I think I can understand it a bit more.

On the river I think you got schooled, but you have to call.

I also don't mind the preflop 3 bet, provided you don't play it post flop like you did.

[jkamowitz]

I'll give my full reasonings later, but you're right in general. The flop check is bad. I messed up the post too so I have to fix it. One second.

[Dagger78]

Alright, I'd really like an explanation on this one. This doesn't seem like this would be a standard line for you. I'm lost.

[private joker]

Pre-preflop: Michael Jackson is a solid play. You could also raise Prince.

Preflop: Thin 3-bet considering your read, but whatever.

Flop: I would bet here. Not sure why you'd want to give him a free 6-out draw if you have him beat, or why you'd let him take over initiative with AJ/AQ.

The rest of the hand would play different if you bet the flop, but after he checks the flop and turn I think it's pretty obvious he doesn't have a PP. That means what -- well it means he has AJ/AQ/AK/KQ, right?

Given that, there's no value in a river bet. I might be results-oriented, but it seems like he'll fold every worse hand on the river, but he'll own you with a c/r every time he has AK/AQ.

You may say, "If he had a better ace, why did he check the river?" From his standpoint you 3-bet PF and checked two streets in a row, so you probably have nothing or a monster. A bet will only get a fold. So he checks to induce a bluff or a weird value bet from a badly played PP. He c/r for value with AQ/AK.

So you might consider checking the river to re-own him for trying to own you. But having bet it (and in the heat of the hand maybe I would too), you should call a c/r to make sure he isn't making a last-ditch effort to steal it.

[jkamowitz]

This was pretty much my thinking as well. After I bet the river I was like "hm that was pretty stupid."

He actually requested that I post this and discussed the flop, turn and river play.

Flop check is bad. I don't remember why I did it and therefore there is no good justification for it.

Turn check I think is better, he's never folding a pair, and he's tricky enough to c/r As/Ks there after I check the flop.

The river should be a check but you nailed it by saying "in the heat of the moment" I insta-bet he insta-raised and I instantly puked.

[27offsooot]

def. call river if knows of 2p2/ is a 2p2er (which i'm assuming since he asked u to post the hand). I would def bet flop, prob check behind turn, and bet-call river as played (but maybe checking is better).

[DeuceKicker]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop check is bad. I don't remember why I did it and therefore there is no good justification for it.

Turn check I think is better, he's never folding a pair, and he's tricky enough to c/r As/Ks there after I check the flop.

The river should be a check but you nailed it by saying "in the heat of the moment" I insta-bet he insta-raised and I instantly puked.

[/ QUOTE ]Not much more to say after this. You really screwed the pooch with the flop check, so there's probably not a lot of upside to betting the turn since you can't represent anything.

By tough post-flop, do you mean he's capable of putting in 2BB to win a 4.5BB pot with nothing? He needs to be FOS 15% of the time for your river call to break even, but I'm a card-carrying showdown monkey and even I doubt you're good that often.

In honor of the late great Nostrodumbass, I offer the following quatrain:

In the eleventh month of the seventh year
a trio of Fancy Plays, check-raising
a King and his Queen, two spades, no fear
Uh... or maybe he got there with Ace-King

[SNOWBALL]

[ QUOTE ]

Pre-preflop: Michael Jackson is a solid play. You could also raise Prince.


[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I got a lion in my pocket and baby he's ready to roar

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Thin 3-bet considering your read, but whatever.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have a minor peeve with this comment. The 3 bet is -ev here, not thin. I constantly hear "oh it's close" or "oh it's thin" and it's really just mincing words and is conducive to the kind of slippery thinking that leads to FPS and other kinds of spewy silliness. I know we have some pride in our games, but this is FULL RING limit hold em guys. Blah blah chow meow play is often best, and when it isn't, it's never far from wrong.
The only way this PF is close or good (given OP's read) is if hero thinks that villain thinks that hero thinks that villain is playing tight, and will therefore give hero credit for a monster and play fit or fold on the flop.

Also, as others noted, villain plays well postflop, and unless hero thinks he has a good edge on villain, this PF is just bad bad bad.

Of course, I may be misinterpretting what is meant by "nitty." Nitty for this game may in fact be somewhat wide by my own standards.

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Pre-preflop: Michael Jackson is a solid play. You could also raise Prince.


[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I got a lion in my pocket and baby he's ready to roar

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Thin 3-bet considering your read, but whatever.


[/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ]


I have a minor peeve with this comment. The 3 bet is -ev here, not thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree with this. I hate the way he played this hand, but the three bet is correct against practically all opponents. It is positive EV if he is a slight underdog to the opponent's range. AT suited will not be more than a slight underdog to nearly any good player's open raise range from the hijack. If he is raising with only the top 15% we have over 49% equity. Our $60 investment in the $145 pot is only about 42%, that's positive EV.

If the guy is only raising the top 10% from the hijack (unlikely), then its close but still positive. We'd have about 43% equity.