AK

[finegrinder]

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Why should i raise the flop here?

I made a small bet on the turn because the board is dry, and i wanted value from Kx or some pocket pairs.

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I don't think the flop play is terribly bad but others might reasonably disagree.

However, back to your original "as-played" question : I strongly believe that shoving (does any other bet size make sense?) his turn min-check-raise would be wrong. There's no value in such play, unless you have very specific reads. If you're absolutely sure that a min-c/r = the nuts, fold, otherwise call. The drawing hands that can beat you are two-outers or gutshots like JQ so protecting the hand is less important. There's upside in calling :

a) you look weak, so villain might think his K-low-kicker, mid-PP or whatever is good and will put more money on the river.

b) you look weak, so villain will price you less than all in on the river if he has you beat.

c) you keep the pot small when you don't know where you are.

d) you can catch good and bust him! (though the implied odds are not good there's still partial value)

e) you can induce a bluff on the river if villain is really frisky.

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Here's a discussion of points b), c) and d) combined: let's say you're commited to go to showdown because your estimated overall EV against his whole range is positive. For simplification, let's say that you're playing for a maximum $100 bet from the turn on (earlier money is commited because of above reasons), and we'll only discuss the "stripe" from his range where he has you beat (he has a boat) but you have a 10% chance of drawing to a bigger boat (number made up).

Situation 1: you go all in on the turn, he calls you 100% of the time, you lose 90% of the time.

EV1[100 hands] = 90*(-$100)+10*$100 = -$8000

Situation 2: you call the turn to see the river with money behind and you will lose only $50 when you don't boat up ; when you make your boat you will go all in and win a full $100

EV2[100 hands] = 90*(-$50)+10*$100 = -$3500

EV2 - EV1 = $4500

You see that drawing to your boat does not offer the implied odds to make you a winner against this particular subrange, however it adds to your overall expectation.


Money saved is money won.


Does this make any sense or am I full of bull? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]