World Series Experiment

[Jazzy3113]

I tried another experiment. I thought about it logically and said one team has experience and an established ace and one team had a long layoff with a rookie pitcher. And won 450.

By the way thats a sweet website. lol.

[rsigley]

[ QUOTE ]
I tried another experiment. I thought about it logically and said one team has experience and an established ace and one team had a long layoff with a rookie pitcher. And won 450.

By the way thats a sweet website. lol.

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genius idea!! whats your insight for game 2?

team out for revenge after embarrassment on the national stage?

pitcher that everyone says is washed up and over the hill throwing one last great game before his exit?

[crockpot]

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Strat-o-matic?!?!

LOL.

Good luck! The thought of doing the same actually crossed my mind on one occasion.

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you might be surprised how close my handicapping method is to strat-o-matic, but with much more accurate inputs.

[kdog]

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you might be surprised how close my handicapping method is to strat-o-matic, but with much more accurate inputs.

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Not when you consider that strat-o-matic was one of the first pioneers of sabermetrics.

[Jazzy3113]

Anyone like Colorado in game 2?
ML or spread?

I bet alot on beckett but i dont feel as confident with curt.

Im thinking 1.5u on the rockies at +1.5

[centris]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone like Colorado in game 2?
ML or spread?

I bet alot on beckett but i dont feel as confident with curt.

Im thinking 1.5u on the rockies at +1.5

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Jazzy you really have to have a price associated with COL +1.5. I mean if you got COL +1.5 at +200 that owuld be great, but if you had COL +1.5 at -200 it owuld be horrible. YOu cannot just think to blindly bet with out ocnsidering the price. What percentage of the time does col win or loss by a run? Translate that to a price. IF you don't trust curt why play COL +1.5 versus the moneyline? Do you think that the red sox win this often by one run?

[Jazzy3113]

the line im getting is +175, since I am getting positive odds i want to take the one run as opposed to the ML

[centris]

You are gettin COL +1.5 at +175? Where?

[Jazzy3113]

its dropped to +170, but its available at dsi

sorry i misread it. thats the ML. the one run is EV.

[J_Treez]

My much maligned Strat experiment gives the Rockies a %45 percent chance to win after 100 games in Game 2. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] So the price for the Rockies is around +115 according to my sim. The projected total is 10.68. close to the actual 10.

Also, I'd LOVE to hear more about your method Crockpot, as I'm interested in using sims to bet on a more serious level.


So, tonight it's the Rockies again at +182.

YTD 0-1, -1 unit