|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
World Series Experiment
I decided to try to use my Strat-o-matic baseball simulator to make picks on the series this year. I've updated all players based on their 2007 stats.So far I've played Game 1 Francis vs. Beckett 50 times (due to time constraints, small sample, I know) for a record of COL-24 BOS-26. That'd make Strat's price on the Rockies around +110, as opposed to the posted odds of +190, for a conceivable pick. Also, the sim says the total should be 9.22, which is too close for a pick on the total. But, if at all accurate, the Rockies have value at +190. Let the experiment begin.
Strat-o-matic Game 1 pick: COL +190 for 1 unit YTD 0-0, 0 units |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: World Series Experiment
What is this strat-o-matic? Where did you get it? And why didn't you run the simulation more than 50 times?
Edit: I guess it was due to time constraints, how long does it take to run one simulation? |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: World Series Experiment
www.strat-o-matic.com
It only takes a few seconds to run the sim, but between renovating my house and playing poker I don't have much time at all. Most of my time went to updating rosters and adjusting players cards to perform as they did this season. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: World Series Experiment
I ran 50 more games, for a total of 100. COL-49 BOS-51
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: World Series Experiment
Fade the strange contraption.
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: World Series Experiment
JTreez - I think that basing on your bets on strat-o-matic results is kind of wacky.
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: World Series Experiment
Strat-o-matic?!?!
LOL. Good luck! The thought of doing the same actually crossed my mind on one occasion. Has anyone thought of using "Pizza Box Football" http://www.boardgamegeek.com/game/17851 To calculate spreads, ML's and totals? LOL. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: World Series Experiment
I tried another experiment. I thought about it logically and said one team has experience and an established ace and one team had a long layoff with a rookie pitcher. And won 450.
By the way thats a sweet website. lol. |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: World Series Experiment
[ QUOTE ]
I tried another experiment. I thought about it logically and said one team has experience and an established ace and one team had a long layoff with a rookie pitcher. And won 450. By the way thats a sweet website. lol. [/ QUOTE ] genius idea!! whats your insight for game 2? team out for revenge after embarrassment on the national stage? pitcher that everyone says is washed up and over the hill throwing one last great game before his exit? |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: World Series Experiment
[ QUOTE ]
Strat-o-matic?!?! LOL. Good luck! The thought of doing the same actually crossed my mind on one occasion. [/ QUOTE ] you might be surprised how close my handicapping method is to strat-o-matic, but with much more accurate inputs. |
|
|