2/4 QQ flops set

[Mister Z]

Being that he's a TAG and is still raising you on the turn I'm going into call down mode. I know it's really really narrow, but KK just seems too likely.

Your avatar drives me crazy.

[RatFink]

[ QUOTE ]
Well you might be against KK-3 combinations and AA-6 that will beat you, and you are beating AK-12 combinations it is 12:9=1,33:1 in your favor and you still have 10 outs for a full house or 4 of a kind, so do not worry about flash draw MP2 might have, so I would call and see what the river will bring.

Is this a good thinking? :-)

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If you are behind then you have 1 out, not 10. And you beat AA, so that needs to be moved to the other side of your equation.

It is a call-down from the turn raise. You have check-3-bet the flop and he is still charging. I wouldn't expect AK to even continue raising there, since it can't be AsKs, and you should have at least AA or better given your play (check-3bet the flop and leading the turn after it was capped) It is KK almost always here. But you don't have enough of a read to guarantee it isn't AA, so 2 more bets are going in from you.

[Mister Z]

[ QUOTE ]
First off, lead out on the flop. It isn't likely that it will be two bets back to you like it ended up being and by leading out, you automatically get a chance to make it three bets if the button raises.

Secondly, the button might be making this turn play with KQ, AK or AA just as likely as KK and JT doesn't seem likely. He could also have 99 and just turned a smaller set. I think you should three bet him here and only back down if the button caps.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think AA and AK can be ruled out at this point. A tag wouldn't raise this turn after capping and still being bet into with another player in between calling down.

He definitely does not have 99 here. KQ, JTs, and 33 are possibilities in order of liklihood.

[Drjekel]

You've got to bet out the flop here - If he's TAG, then base this on his cap pre-flop. AA, AK or KK are all likely - and I'd rather come out fireing with the option to 3 bet the flop and then asses if villian calls or cap's the flop.

If he cap's I put him on KK and check-call it down. If he calls my 3 bet - I continue to fire - and possibly get trapped on the river.

Based on how the hand has gone thus far - I'd call - check and call (Raise if my nut Queen hit's).

I'm pretty sure I'm beat at this point though.

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
KQ, JTs, and 33 are possibilities in order of liklihood.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read on him is tight preflop. He capped PF.

None of those hands really make sense given that. I think it can only be AA, KK, or AK given the PF cap.

[Mister Z]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
KQ, JTs, and 33 are possibilities in order of liklihood.

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Read on him is tight preflop. He capped PF.

None of those hands really make sense given that. I think it can only be AA, KK, or AK given the PF cap.

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You are correct sir! Please strike the comment from the record...

[eclinchy]

Is it just me or have multiple posters said they're afraid of AA? What am I missing here? Doesn't a set beat a pair?

I'd call down. KK is possible, and so is JT, but the chances of you beating two pair PLUS the chances of rivering a paired board against JT make the hand profitable.

[Sandberg]

Why is it so unlikely that the villain doesn't have 99? I think it's possible. Here's my perspective on what the villain as at this point:

40% chance KK
25% chance AK
20% chance AA
15% chance something else (99,KQ,strange bluff).

This means we are significant favorite 60% of the time to his range of hands.

The other player intrigues me. I think he has specifically JT about 30% of the time himself. We can draw out against JT but sometimes we get drawn out on by the range of hands held by either player so I call that a wash and assign us:

60% equity against one player
70% equity against other player

For a grand total of 40% equity in this hand. Does that make a three bet a good idea here?

With 18+ bb in the pot at the moment and four bets=cap, I think getting at least 9:1 directly on our money (though often being capped when we are behind), I think three betting the turn, calling a cap, and slowing down on the river are our best options. I still maintain that we'll win this hand often enough to cointinue putting money in the pot.

[Sandberg]

I'm not afraid of AA. I consider it a legit possibility however and others are dismissing it out of turn. I've seen plenty of TAG's "wait until the turn" to raise with AA even on a board like this. This TAG is quite likely to feel that we were c/r ing an AK here and not a set. I think KK is more likely but the range of possible hands that we put the button villain on is high enough that I call for a three bet.

[RatFink]

He didn't wait until the turn. He bet at every possible opportunity.

Your range on him might be wide, but 95% of the time it is AA/KK/QQ/AKs when he caps preflop.

When you find a pokerroom tag that caps multi-way preflop and caps a KQx two-suited flop with 99, you can experiment with wider ranges.

QQ is eliminated on the flop due to presence of 3 known Qs

AKs is devalued when he raises the turn unless he had AsKs, but Ks is on the board so he doesn't have that. AK would need to be concerned about AA, and this player is not.

AA is possible and you are ahead of it, but given the check-3bet and turn lead by hero, they would have to believe they were precisely up against the other AA to raise the turn and continue padding the pot with the caller.

If you had 800 hands on him, and he was a 14/3/1.8 player, is it a call-down? Is there ever a point where you have enough of a player read that it can only be KK when he raises the turn? And does it matter, or do you just toss the 2 more bets into the large pot.