Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

[durron597]

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We all appreciate the work you and Durron are doing and this forum's much improved for it.

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FYI, Durron is a mod for another forum and not this one. Thanks.

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[SossMan]

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2) The utility of saving 10BB by bluffing 5k instead of All-in into a pot of 10k against a Tight player should outweigh the lower FE.

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No way, you need all the FE you can get here, and your 10BB stack is going to be tiny as hell in this tournament, you're in push fold mode this early? that's like have 200 in a pokerstars tournaemnt in the 10/20 Blind level while everyone else is at 1500...

Not a cool situation.. i'll take the extra FE thank youver much.

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except that it's debateable which bet actually has more FE. I think that it's different for different players. You might have more FE w/ a 5k bet vs. some players plus the fact that if they call you, you have 10x left.

[Rduke55]

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We all appreciate the work you and Durron are doing and this forum's much improved for it.

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FYI, Durron is a mod for another forum and not this one. Thanks.

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OK, I'm a little drunk and a big jerk obviously. That's the other forum I read most and am not thinking clearly. Jeez, what can I do to get on your good side? You make it sound like I called a girl by a different name during sexicourse.

[DonT77]

You're doing a great job Lloyd of promoting deeper level discussions in the forum; keep up the good work.

[tiger7210]

I check the river here because i don't believ i have enough FE to get him to fold to a push here with his stack size with the possibilty he may have a big hand here. I think a push only gets 2nd pair to fold. I check looking to fight another battle.

[Sirckus]

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Say your initial range for opponent inclues 50 hands. You eventually narrow the range down to 5 hands. Let's further accept as true Harrington's postulate that any opponent bluffs at least 10% of the time. For the tight opponent in this problem, we'll say it's exactly 10%.

So now you have 6 possible explanations. Your 5-hand range, and a bluff. From your initial range of 50 hands, the 5 hands each has a probability of .02. The odds of a total bluff now are: .1/((.02 * 5) + .1) = 50%!

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This is absolutely fantastic.

[tagteam]

Possible hands, AA, KK, QQ, TT, 99, 33, AK, AJ, KJ.

I check as I see no value in betting, you are surely beat.

[tpir]

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Say your initial range for opponent inclues 50 hands. You eventually narrow the range down to 5 hands. Let's further accept as true Harrington's postulate that any opponent bluffs at least 10% of the time. For the tight opponent in this problem, we'll say it's exactly 10%.

So now you have 6 possible explanations. Your 5-hand range, and a bluff. From your initial range of 50 hands, the 5 hands each has a probability of .02. The odds of a total bluff now are: .1/((.02 * 5) + .1) = 50%!

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This is absolutely fantastic.

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I wish this part of the thread would have received a little more love. I realize that it might not be that useful to talk about since it's abstract and not something that would come across in a hand post since it can only be applied with a great read...(*inhale*) but I think it's interesting and has some merit.

[Trojan01]

NOTE: Making the assumption this tight CO player has atleast a decent understanding of cards since there is nothing said to the contrary.

First, I highly doubt a tight player makes a pot sized bet on the turn with something as low as a draw, let alone calls a decent sized reraise with his draw.

Second, I don't think he holds kj,qq,1010,99 because even a tight player would probably push these hands facing your reraise. There's just too many draws, the pot is getting large.

I think it's very possible for CO to hold 33, hoping to see a showdown and a blank on the river or a 9 or 10.

A few other possibilities might be 910s,q10s.

Unlikely but possible holdings might be JQ, KQ.

I think you get an unhappy call from the set and probably the two pair, and you likely get away with a push when he is holding jq or kq.

I check the river, it's early and I have plenty of chips left. I don't need to make this very questionable gamble.

[Vorlin]

Uh boy... this is why I carry Tylenol.

Someone else said that this is a lot harder when the earlier moves were not what you yourself would have done and they were right... I love the PF raise but would have probed the flop bet for 500 and called the turn to get the SB's money too with little risk to myself. But we're here and it's time to deal with this...

The CO almost has to have 2 pair. QT, maybe Q9. I think T9 would have fired a bullet on the flop because you just can't slow play 2 pair for fear of being run down too often, so I still disregard T9 as a possibility.

What's more interesting is what the CO would put us on...

1) We raised 3X the BB pre-flop.
2) We checked the flop.
3) We jacked him up pretty hard on the turn.

What could someone raise PF with? Premium hands and pairs.

Now, what would he need on the flop in order to let an opponent have a free card on the turn and then ambush him on the river?

A flopped set, most likely 99 and up.

Considering this board, there is only one hand that meets the requirements of the PF raise and the post flop play... and that's TT.

Hero has one shot, and that's a push. It would serve to convince the CO that we have TT but even that's no guarantee that we won't be called down because we don't have enough chips to take away the odds for the SB to pay us off if he has 2 pair, which is nearly certain.

If we fold, we have 6,900 to survive with. That's do-able, so this is NOT an automatic shove. The real question is, how convinced is the SB that we flopped the set and ambushed him on the turn?

Without seeing him face to face, it's impossible to know. He is, however, considered to be a tight player... and most likely a "good" player. Good players are bluffable players... and the bets leading up to this tell a story. The story that the SB reads is that we have trips. So, if we push, that's going to be perfectly consistent with what he's read so far.

"A good bluff tells a story that the victim believes and understands." (Quoted from Matt Lessinger's book... or maybe mis-quoted!).

For me, it comes down to this. Can we out-play the table well enough to make a go if it with only 6900? Our M isn't critical yet, so we need to look at the rest of the table.

- If we think we can prosper by playing small-ball with only the 6900, then check it and muck without showing when he shows that we're beat.

- If the table is tough, we'll get picked apart if we only have 6900... so it's better to take the shot and maybe, just maybe, the SB will believe what our bets have been telling him all along. In this case, burn some incense, say some prayers and shove the chips.

Vorlin