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Old 11-16-2007, 11:13 PM
Russ M. Russ M. is offline
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Default Is it possible to just be an unlucky person?

And that question doesn't just relate to poker, but we'll start with poker.

Here's an example of the kind of bad luck I seem to have, typically in large pots when I get it all in as the favorite. I'm playing 2/2 live NL (the last hand of live poker I played which was on 10/13) and am dealt AA UTG+1. UTG folds, I raise to $20 (standard raise for that table). I get three callers, then another guy goes all-in for $40 total. I'm thinking "Great, just enough for a raise, now I can push and isolate." Then another short stack goes all-in over the top for a total of $53. Now I can't reraise because the betting is capped, so I'm forced to call. The next player hems and haws and calls claiming he knows he has 2 outs only. The other players fold. I have like $60-ish left and shove in the dark. As he's hemming and hawing, I look down at the flop of J-2-6r. He finally calls again saying he knows he only has 2 outs.

Turn and river are both 5's and I hear the lady who shoved over the top capping the betting saying she has a straight. What? I thought she was kidding but she turns over 43o. Guy who called me all-in apologizes to me and shows pocket fives.

Another instance is when I have ATo. Several people limp, I limp, guy on button raises to $12. Bunch of callers, I call to close the action.

Flop is K-Q-Jr. Everyone (including me) check to the button who bets $75. I have about $300 total, pot has around $75 in it so he potted it. Folds around to me, I shove. He hems and haws and calls with KJo. Turn brick, river J. Another huge pot I lose.

Another hand was when I had KK in the blind and there was a small raise preflop and several callers. I shove for another $200, I have everyone covered. Preflop raiser calls for about $60. One guy who just sat down debates it and says "lets gamble" and calls for $90. Everyone else folds.

Board comes out 2-3-5-J-A. Original preflop raiser shows TT no good. Gambling idiot shows 84s.

Another less interesting one was getting all-in preflop with QQ vs AK for $100 each. Queen in the door, yet a T also on flop, river J gives him the nuts. There are a few more hands in which I get the money in as a huge favorite and lose, but they are all pretty much the same so you get the idea.

I don't mean to make this post a big bad beat story but this is the kind of thing that happens to me CONSTANTLY in big pots. I deposit a little change into Stars and my luck runs bad there too. I won't bother to post specific hands but there have been several 2nd nut flush vs nut flush and my AJ vs his K2 on a A-7-7 board and I lose to running kings and another A-x vs K-x on a A-x-x board to running kings.

***(tennis terms upcoming***) Last night I was playing tennis and my partner and I were up 5-1 on our opponents in a practice match. They then went on to hit line after line, serves off the line, lobs off the line, half-volleys perfectly placed and/or lobbed perfectly over our heads, blind stab volleys for winners, mis-hits dropping in all over the place, hits off the top of the net dropping on our side for winners while my shots hit the top of the net and stay on my side. I mean, you name it, they hit it and they didn't miss once. We lost 7-5, 6-1, barely breaking the streak by winning a game down 5-0.

I really hate making this post because I know it seems like just a whiny bad beat post and I really feel gay writing it but I am just now feeling like everything is going against me. Every time I play poker I think "in what way am I going to lose this time?" I stopped playing live for the time being because no matter what I do, I lose. If I play super tight, I lose. If I play loose-passive, I lose. If I play loose-aggressive, I lose. Nothing I do works, everything I do fails. I've passed the phase of being pissed off at it all and now I'm just kind of in a daze, as if its no surprise that when it happens. I keep thinking things like "it can't possibly get worse, can it?" and yet it seems to just keep getting worse and worse and I don't know what to do. I really love playing poker but it just seems hopeless. And yes I'm aware my sample size is small. I kept stats of my live play and over the last 52 hours of play (maybe call it 1500 hands or so) I've had 11 negative sessions (14 sessions total) totaling -$900. I know I'm not a GREAT player but I'm not a total tard out there and to be on a 9 buy-in downswing in a game that a monkey could beat just flat out embarrasses me.

I should also mention I have two buddies that play and we generally play in the same game. We all play fairly similar games although I'm probably the loosest of the group. They suffer a few beats here and there but overall they have nowhere near my level of bad luck and are typically winners in this game we play in.

Just for fun I will include this tidbit since I just scanned that lottery thread: I occasionally play the lottery for maybe 5 $1 tickets at a time. Usually I don't play unless the jackpot is over $30m which, here in Florida, doesn't happen often. I would guess that over the course of my life I've spent around $300-400 bucks on lottery. I have won money exactly 1 time when I matched 3 out of 6 and won $4.50 on a $5 ticket. I know overall this is pretty meaningless but it's just funny to me for some reason.

So basically I am looking for opinions on whether or not its feasible to just be unlucky in general. Again, I realize my sample size is small and yes this does feel like a bad beat "please comfort me" post but I'm trying not to make it seem that way. I'm just at a loss as to what I can do to turn things around and need some serious responses.
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  #2  
Old 11-16-2007, 11:47 PM
qdmcg qdmcg is offline
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Default Re: Is it possible to just be an unlucky person?

in my opinion its certainly possible to "run bad" for extended amounts of time in poker, in life, etc. you could be the .001% of people at the bottom of the spectrum.

[ QUOTE ]
And yes I'm aware my sample size is small.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you were...you probably would have a better outlook than the one you have:


[ QUOTE ]
I really hate making this post because I know it seems like just a whiny bad beat post and I really feel gay writing it but I am just now feeling like everything is going against me. Every time I play poker I think "in what way am I going to lose this time?" I stopped playing live for the time being because no matter what I do, I lose. If I play super tight, I lose. If I play loose-passive, I lose. If I play loose-aggressive, I lose. Nothing I do works, everything I do fails. I've passed the phase of being pissed off at it all and now I'm just kind of in a daze, as if its no surprise that when it happens. I keep thinking things like "it can't possibly get worse, can it?" and yet it seems to just keep getting worse and worse and I don't know what to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can almost guarantee this is effecting your play in a bad way.



obviously you know this, but you cannot change your luck. just keep playing correctly and things should turn themselves around, assuming you're a winning player.
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Old 11-17-2007, 04:34 AM
Rek Rek is offline
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Default Re: Is it possible to just be an unlucky person?

Let me start by saying I believe in infinity. Yes infinity is a fact but so many people do not believe it. So, using poker as the example, if you played an infinite number of games then every scenario would occur. At some stage you would lose 1million coinflips in a row. Yes, the odds are indescribable but it has to happen in infinity.

Now, if you happen to be born at the time this unbelievable occurrence is to happen you will be unlucky. No question. If you could live to infinity luck would even out. Yes, some people can be unlucky. However, donít hide behind bad luck because 99.99% of the time it is poor judgement.
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Old 11-17-2007, 05:18 AM
Johnes Benjamin Johnes Benjamin is offline
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Default Re: Is it possible to just be an unlucky person?

at the end of your life it could be said you were unlucky, ie ran less than your expected allin equity, but you could be unlucky for 20 years and it would have no bearing on how likely you are to be lucky the next day.
Luck does not exist as a tangible quality

Just FYI, there is no Santa Claus or Heaven either.
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Old 11-17-2007, 05:43 AM
Rek Rek is offline
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Default Re: Is it possible to just be an unlucky person?

[ QUOTE ]
Just FYI, there is no Santa Claus

[/ QUOTE ]

WHAT????????? Who is that fat guy in the red suit I see in the supermarket every year?
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  #6  
Old 11-17-2007, 07:21 AM
TheGam TheGam is offline
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Default Re: Is it possible to just be an unlucky person?

You are not unlucky, you just haven't played enough games yet.

I know that sounds harsh, and it's not a digg, but there are a lot of combinations of cards in poker, and as such it's possible to keep hitting bad hands or beats.

However, over 100K hands plus, it will even out and you won't see as many things going your way as against.

why? Because you are only betting large when you have the best of it (I hope)
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  #7  
Old 11-17-2007, 08:52 AM
Russ M. Russ M. is offline
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Default Re: Is it possible to just be an unlucky person?

[ QUOTE ]
You are not unlucky, you just haven't played enough games yet.

I know that sounds harsh, and it's not a digg, but there are a lot of combinations of cards in poker, and as such it's possible to keep hitting bad hands or beats.

However, over 100K hands plus, it will even out and you won't see as many things going your way as against.

why? Because you are only betting large when you have the best of it (I hope)

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this answer (and the others) are right and I'm just an idiot but I'm struggling to mentally overcome it. I'm sure is affecting my play, although how many times can I continue to get it all-in as a huge favorite and lose? It's either that or I flop the 2nd nuts and someone flopped the nuts. That's usually the only time I get it in bad is when I flop a big hand and someone has flopped a bigger one. It's extremely frustrating and it's been going on continuously for about a year now.
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  #8  
Old 11-17-2007, 01:05 PM
sh58 sh58 is offline
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Default Re: Is it possible to just be an unlucky person?

it is possible, but ver unlikely.

it is more likely in real life than poker

ie - it would be most unlucky if you got run over tomorrow and died, that would make you an unlucky person imo.
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  #9  
Old 11-17-2007, 02:22 PM
Russ M. Russ M. is offline
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Default Re: Is it possible to just be an unlucky person?

thanks, guess I'll be staying in tomorrow. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #10  
Old 11-17-2007, 10:43 PM
meBigGuy meBigGuy is offline
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Default Re: Is it possible to just be an unlucky person?

Anything is possible. But, it is improbable.

The worst thing you can do is change your style based on your perception of luck.

What kind of bad luck?

1. Run of bad starting hands? That happens

2. Always in with best hand and get beaten (hold'em)? If you keep track on paper, you may find you suck out as often as get beat.

3. Other guy always has better cards? Could be a skill issue here.

Personally, I think the cards run even in the long run, but short and long runs of "luck/no-luck" happen. Each hand is a new hand, and past history has no bearing. You can say you have had a bad run, but not that it will or won't continue. In all probability, it won't continue, be it good or bad.

Again, don't change your style based on your perception or anticipation of bad luck. You will just thrash and never get it together. Persevere.

Let's Face it though, you could just be a terrible player. That's much more likely than you were born unlucky. And, at least the former is fixable through hard work and study.
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