my friend says he's unlucky

[wslee00]

I'm bad at probability. I have no idea what this is for, but he gave me these two scenarios. Is he just running bad?:

Series 1: 25 cards in a deck. 14 unfavorable cards. I hold 14 cards. The probability that 12 out of the 14 are unfavorable.

Series 2: given 150 people, 28 seats available, the probability of NOT getting a seat 15 times in a row. Is this just 1/150 + 1/149 + ... 1/135?

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Series 1: 25 cards in a deck. 14 unfavorable cards. I hold 14 cards. The probability that 12 out of the 14 are unfavorable.

[/ QUOTE ]

C(14,12)*C(11,2) / C(25,14) =~ 0.11% or 1 in 891


[ QUOTE ]
Series 2: given 150 people, 28 seats available, the probability of NOT getting a seat 15 times in a row. Is this just 1/150 + 1/149 + ... 1/135?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. (122/150)^15 =~ 4.5% or 1 in 22

[wslee00]

ok - so not is he just unlucky he's extremely unlucky - thanks.