Basic line check, committed vs. shorty, TPTK on monotone flop

[poincaraux]

So, I'm committed pre-flop vs. the shorty. What's the best way to make sure he sticks it in on the flop?

First orbit, so no reads.

My first thought was "just shove. He's committed, and it would suck if he checked behind and hit some stupid spade."

My second thought was "meh, he's calling with a single spade anyway, so check and let him bet it, stick it in on the turn if he checks behind."

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $40
CO: $100.30
BTN: $195.40
Hero (SB): $97.50
BB: $57.10

UTG posts $1
Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2</font>, CO calls $2, BTN calls $2, <font color="red">Hero raises to $11</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $9, 2 folds

Flop: ($27) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero ...

[Imrahil]

Bet.

[nazahl]

I'd go with thought 1

[Acevader]

No way is UTG committed here! Yes, you or I would be committed in this spot but a s/s min-raising UTG and calling a re-raise really doesn't realize that he now needs to felt it! I've seen them call with all manner of hands and I've seen all manner of stupid folds in this spot. If the flop wasn't so dangerous I'd let him hang himself by checking but on this board you'll hate yourself if he makes a stupid low flush so just auto-shove I say.

[Ninth Path]

Bet $29.00.

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen them call with all manner of hands and I've seen all manner of stupid folds in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is the thing. I don't think I have a great understanding of exactly what hands he'll bet if I check or fold if I bet.

I have a feeling that he's likely to shove a lot more if I check on a 2-tone flop than on this one. Like, I've seen off-suit 2 and 3 gappers that totally missed shove there.