10£/20£ go for river c/r?

[Chaoslord]

sorry no converter.

6-handed on crypto. i have a very aggressive image, villian is loose/passive (30/6 or something) not much history with him. he has 1877 i cover.

UTG+1 (villian) limps everyone folds i check in the bb with 8d2d
flop: Jd2c4d giving me a pair and a fd, i lead out 40 he minraises to 80, i call.
turn: Ks i check he bets 120 i call

so far everything is pretty std i think.
now river: 2h i bet out 420 (about potsize) and he instacalls with KJ.

i was wondering if it would have been better to go for a river check-raise (all-in obv) but im fairly sure hes not betting a jack but will call with one. also he could have a set in which case i dont loose as much (i planned on folding to a push since hes not creative enough to make this kind of huge bluff with a busted draw or something).

thoughts?

[Klaphat]

And what kinda hands do you expect him to pay you off with?

[matt85]

I think this is played fine as is as, at least to my mind, but then I dont play this high.

I think given the betting and his style there is only one hand that he has that beats you here and thats 44, but perhaps he doesnt pot it on the turn with this. I think his range is pretty much 44 rarely and J8s-KJo here (maybe AJ)most of the time. But aside from 44 which beats you, none of these hands are going to pay off a RR-AI apart from maybe KJ which he value bets on the end and may sometimes call the RR with. However, this is only one specific hand and any other jack checks and folds to the RR, overall though I think value betting here has the higher EV than re-raising , therefore the value bet is ok.

Thoughts?

[Moonshine]

this is a fantastic river to check raise. it looks like you missed a draw (which you did) and he cant really put you on a boat or a 2 given the action. i think he calls with a pretty big range

[Chaoslord]

well im pretty sure that when he bets for value on the river he also calls all-in really often because as you said it looks like i missed my draw.
the question is: does he bet a jack for value? i dont think so, and its pretty unlikely he has a king here.

[Moonshine]

he limped. the only hand I'm really worried about is 44. AA definitely plays like this sometimes if he's a fish. The miniraise is often a weird top pair getting value so i'd expect KJ here sometimes from a donkey.

THe fact that he bet the turn too probably means he's got a decent hand, since a lot of bad players will et scared of the overcard and shut down with one pair


of course i could also be biased by results so you shouldnt post them next time. it's hard to ignore

[psyduck]

I actually think you played it fine. Passive guys don't bet Jx here but they'll call a bet really often since the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s missed. He just happened to have KJ here AND he didn't raise the river, so it's fine. If he's going to value-bet Jx here he certainly won't be able to call a big c/r unless he there are unmentioned dynamics going on.

I think Moonshine is being results-oriented.