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  #41  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:34 AM
foal foal is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

Black men got the vote before women and one of the arguments against giving them the vote is "we'd have to give women the vote". I think you're underestimating the vagina factor.
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  #42  
Old 11-28-2007, 02:44 AM
Max Raker Max Raker is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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If you really believe this I would be happy to put 5k at 2:1 on Hillary winning the presidency if she gets the nomination.

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Don't be a nit. He's making a prediction, that she wouldn't win. Besides, why bet with a rando on the internets when he can get better odds just about anywhere else.


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Don't be a nit, I never expected him to take the bet, I did it to make a point. When people make ridiculous statements that deviate this far from what the gambling community says they better offer some concrete evidence and not just pointless drivel. If he had said "I don't think Hillary is going to win" thats fine but he claimed that he can tell a full year from the election that she has no shot when common sense tells you that she, along with any democrat that can win the ticket, have around a 50% chance of being elected.
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  #43  
Old 11-28-2007, 02:47 AM
Nonfiction Nonfiction is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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Black men got the vote before women and one of the arguments against giving them the vote is "we'd have to give women the vote". I think you're underestimating the vagina factor.

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So your basic argument is that the country is more sexist than it is racist? I would strongly disagree.
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  #44  
Old 11-28-2007, 03:23 AM
Max Raker Max Raker is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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So the margin of error is 1 percent, but it's unclear how they found the random sample of people willing to partake in the poll.

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I think you misunderstood the poll. They never said they thought the sample was random. The 1% margin just means that they have a certain confidence level that the true percentage of people who would click and participate in an internet poll is in that 2% spread. This says pretty much nothing about how the voting public will vote.
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  #45  
Old 11-28-2007, 03:40 AM
Max Raker Max Raker is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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For #2, repubs didn't care about GWB's experience, they voted for him because they loved his dad.


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LOL, this is pretty funny.
Did you miss the 92 election? Bush Sr. won in 88 because of love for Reagan. The fact that he actually had to fight to even get the nomination at a time were 60% of the country would have elected Reagan again illustrates how little he was loved.
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  #46  
Old 11-28-2007, 04:12 AM
Max Raker Max Raker is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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It has nothing to do with her bad month, it has to do with Republican turnout. There is always going to be dislike for a candidate from the opposite party, but not to the level of the Republicans and Hillary. I'm not exactly saying ground-breaking stuff here, so the fact that you are acting like I made some sort of shocking statement is a little baffling.

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Yes, the stuff you are saying is obvious, everybody knows that some people hate Hillary. What is baffling is that you are using this fact to arrive at a conclusion so far off from what polls, gambling sites and pundits are saying.

The polarizing argument is so ridiculous. If 40% of the electorate would rather die then see you elected but the other 60% vote for you, you will win. All a person that hates Hillary can do is vote for the other guy. They don't get to vote twice or put a negative vote for Hillary. If Hillary doesn't win it will be because not enough people want her to be president. Can't believe I had to type that.
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  #47  
Old 11-28-2007, 02:53 PM
Jeremy517 Jeremy517 is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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The polarizing argument is so ridiculous. If 40% of the electorate would rather die then see you elected but the other 60% vote for you, you will win.

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That would require all swing voters to go for her. Good luck with that one. Some percentage of the 50% will show up to vote against her. Some percentage of the Democratic base that will vote for the Democratic candidate no matter what will show up. The difference has to be made up (or not lost, if it is in your favor) in the swing voters. The size of the hole/mountain is the question.
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  #48  
Old 11-28-2007, 03:01 PM
foal foal is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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Black men got the vote before women and one of the arguments against giving them the vote is "we'd have to give women the vote". I think you're underestimating the vagina factor.

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So your basic argument is that the country is more sexist than it is racist? I would strongly disagree.

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It depends. I think people consider women less competent and less "strong" and more "emotion driven", but consider black men more antisocial. If you look at treatment of law enforcement officers by their co-workers I think you'll find more sexism than racism. If you look at treatment of civilians by law officers I think you'll find them more racist. It depends on the circumstance. I don't think the people who prefered the idea of black men voting to women voting were necessarily more sexist than racist. They merely were on the issue of voting. Voting is basically an issue of political descision making, so it relates to becoming president as well.
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  #49  
Old 11-28-2007, 03:03 PM
DVaut1 DVaut1 is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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Some percentage of the 50% will show up to vote against her. Some percentage of the Democratic base that will vote for the Democratic candidate no matter what will show up. The difference has to be made up (or not lost, if it is in your favor) in the swing voters. The size of the hole/mountain is the question.

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What is baffling is that you are using this fact to arrive at a conclusion so far off from what polls, gambling sites and pundits are saying.

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^ Read this again

We can ignore the pundits, but perhaps you should consider the polling and prediction markets before continuing any further with the "Hillary can't win because she's too polarizing" argument. Actually, maybe you should have considered polling, prediction markets, obvious fund-raising cues, etc. first, but better late than never, right?

I mean, I get the argument; clearly there exists a meme that Hillary is too polarizing to win in a general election. Okay. Fair enough. Is that narrative true?

Well, what kind of indicators and empirical evidence do we have to suggest this isn't true?

Head to head polling shows her not only competitive with the top GOP candidates but beating them. She's "winning" the fund-raising battle in many of the top industries and special interests who aren't so much ideologically inclined as they are looking to hedge their bets and maintain their influence peddling. And not only that, pretty much eveery [censored] gambling site spreading odds says she's the favorite.

Scientific polling, fundraising evidence, and predictions markets probably trump whatever you or I or some right-wing blowhard has to say on the matter, yes?

So smart money says "Hillary is too polarizing to win" probably isn't a true statement.
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  #50  
Old 11-28-2007, 03:03 PM
bobman0330 bobman0330 is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

[ QUOTE ]
The polarizing argument is so ridiculous. If 40% of the electorate would rather die then see you elected but the other 60% vote for you, you will win. All a person that hates Hillary can do is vote for the other guy. They don't get to vote twice or put a negative vote for Hillary. If Hillary doesn't win it will be because not enough people want her to be president. Can't believe I had to type that.

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You aren't considering turnout. If 40% of the electorate would rather die than see you win, and the other 60% like you, you'll probably lose, because your people won't all vote.
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