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  #1  
Old 11-05-2007, 02:29 AM
Poker Clif Poker Clif is offline
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Default Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needed a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the big blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?
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  #2  
Old 11-05-2007, 03:46 AM
Poker Clif Poker Clif is offline
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Default Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
CORRECTED AS NOTED:

When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needed a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the SMALL blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #3  
Old 11-05-2007, 04:35 AM
Gonso Gonso is offline
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Default Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

For me, no, it's absolutely not a call from the SB. In fact, a hand like K3s is pretty much one of the worst possible hands, esp from the SB. You have the absolute worst position, and you're pretty much playing for a king-high flush or a two pair +.

Okay, you'll hardly ever flop a flush outright. I forget how often it happens it's hundreds to one.

The chances flopping a flush draw -just a draw- is like 10 or 11 percent, so that's pretty tough in and of itself. Then, sometimes the board will be paired which reduces the value of your hand.

But let's say you flop a clean flush draw. Now you have to choose between betting into several players, or checking. Sometimes you'll have to check-fold, other times you might check-raise and commit a lot of money to a draw, if you check-call you might as well just show your flush draw. These are problems with your position more than your hand, of course, but still.

Then, when all is said and done, IF you hit your flush, you still have to get your money's worth. Which is hard to do since it will usually be hard to keep your draw hidden. Finally you will occasionally feel the horror of going through all those hoops just to stack off to a guy who fills up on the river holding a little equity with a set, the A of your suit hitting a fourth suit on the board, or just A7s trapping you.

Making a big 3-bet here to take it down will work often enough against certain tables, and every now and again I do just that in limpy pots like this if my image is good, at least then you can cut down the field and rep a legit hand on later streets. I think folding here is the best choice the majority of the time though, and I hate calling, even getting 10-to-1 or something. As good as those odds sound, you're going to have such a hard time extracting any value out of that spot.
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  #4  
Old 11-08-2007, 08:39 PM
gatorch0mp gatorch0mp is offline
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Default Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

Fold or raise (depending on stack sizes).... calling sucks with K3s.
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  #5  
Old 11-09-2007, 07:10 AM
TheFoxNL TheFoxNL is offline
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Default Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

hmm i TBH i dont think calling in SB is very weak with 1 limper

lets say for ease that the BB isnt raising PF
you got a unraised pot 3 handed and you got a K3s
ok the kicker is crap but alott of times youre K might be good
and arent we depending on our post flop play here ?
if youre post flop play is good and youre able to sence weakness isnt it fine to call in this situation
you might know youre hand is K3 but youre opponents dont

i dont think the K3 matters much here its just the qeustion if you can outplay youre opponents while holding a weaker kicker

playing it in the hopes of making a flush is stupid

qeustion for you guys would you limp along with KTs ?
too me thats no difference then K3
if you hit top pair you still worried about youre kicker
and everything else is just hoping for flush straight or 2 pair wich is stupid


early stage 1 limper i dont mind calling K3s from SB
more limpers or later stage i wouldnt
if youre a weak post flop player i would also avoid calling with it from SB
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  #6  
Old 11-09-2007, 08:00 AM
Gonso Gonso is offline
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Default Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
gonso, what tournament have you ever played in where most of the players at your table arent terrible early in the game when these situations come up?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's no excuse to play badly yourself. If you feel the other players are so weak, why not take this pot away from them outright, or get it down to one or two players and work them post flop? That's not unreasonable and I'll do that from time to time. Or, why not wait until the next couple of hands and abuse them from position. Playing thier limp game and giving them position isn't really taking advantage of their weaknesses.

Second, stacks being smaller relative to blinds is an argument against long-shot hands OOP like this one, not for it.

I dunno, maybe one of you guys wants to post a couple hands or something and we'll break it down. As is I don't think this is a profitable play under normal circumstances. I don't see how you're not going to wind up committing additional chips to the pot at some point, without really knowing where you are and almost invariably having a marginal hand (again, while out of position).

As far as playing it OOP but HU, that's fine if your edge can compensate you for your bad position and weak hand. The things is calling a limper won't accomplish that, you'll be three way and that's if the BB doesn't 3-bet.

Also, for the record, lol donkaments.
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  #7  
Old 11-09-2007, 09:57 AM
futuredoc85 futuredoc85 is offline
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Default Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
gonso, what tournament have you ever played in where most of the players at your table arent terrible early in the game when these situations come up?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's no excuse to play badly yourself. If you feel the other players are so weak, why not take this pot away from them outright, or get it down to one or two players and work them post flop? That's not unreasonable and I'll do that from time to time. Or, why not wait until the next couple of hands and abuse them from position. Playing thier limp game and giving them position isn't really taking advantage of their weaknesses.

Second, stacks being smaller relative to blinds is an argument against long-shot hands OOP like this one, not for it.

I dunno, maybe one of you guys wants to post a couple hands or something and we'll break it down. As is I don't think this is a profitable play under normal circumstances. I don't see how you're not going to wind up committing additional chips to the pot at some point, without really knowing where you are and almost invariably having a marginal hand (again, while out of position).

As far as playing it OOP but HU, that's fine if your edge can compensate you for your bad position and weak hand. The things is calling a limper won't accomplish that, you'll be three way and that's if the BB doesn't 3-bet.

Also, for the record, lol donkaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

no what i mean is that bad players in the pot make it +EV to limp it. They will call a bet or 2 w/ less than top pair on a K hi flop, they will chase worse flushes when you have a FD, etc. If they become the aggressor at any point you can easily dump it w/o 2 pair+, and you're getting insane odds to complete preflop. The better the players already in the pot are, the harder it will be to show a profit completing. Like i said most tourneys i play start out 100bbs deep and all my cash play is 100bbs+ so thats the depth im talking about here. Once stacks are a lot shallower it becomes an easy fold.

edit: we're misunderstanding each other RE: stack depths, we're both saying the same thing. When i say weak players, i dont nec. mean weak/tight, but loose/passive and bad in general. If they are nits then obv just pop it up pre or fold, but ppl who call down too much postflop make completing ok w/ deep enough stacks.
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  #8  
Old 11-05-2007, 04:58 PM
PantsOnFire PantsOnFire is offline
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Default Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

K3s isn't a speculative hand, it's a trash hand. Most often, you are going to hit a 3 or a K on the flop. Then you'll be saying, "well I have something so I'll call one bet and see the turn".

If you are really serious about this, go to you PokerTracker stats for tourneys and check out your stats for the SB. Then start intsafolding hands like K3s in the SB and in month, recheck your SB stats. If they don't get better, I'll come to where you live and buy you a beer.
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  #9  
Old 11-05-2007, 05:07 PM
futuredoc85 futuredoc85 is offline
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Default Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

K3s is def a call from SB w/ multiple limpers and 100bb stacks, 50bbs and its probably close to neutral and you should probably fold it unless you have a good grasp of post-flop play.
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  #10  
Old 11-05-2007, 05:32 PM
curious123 curious123 is offline
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Default Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

Firstly let me say I think you guys (Gonso and POF) are pretty good posters. But your cases are weak here. Try looking at this spot quantitatively, it's not that hard to return a mere sb. Just don't be so damn nitty.
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