CFB Week 8 Early Lines Thread - Page 5

Austiger · #41 10-15-2007, 08:26 AM

I would be less worried about a letdown and more worried about the pressure getting to USF. They are entering rarified territory for them. They handled the pressure at Auburn, but they were under the radar then and Auburn tried to hand them the game over and over again. Sagarin predictor may be skewed b/c it is crediting them for being good enough to beat the Auburn team that won @ Florida and Arkansas. In truth, they beat an Auburn team that was not playing very well and they needed overtime and a 5-0 turnover margin to do it. I'm not trying to take away from their win as an Auburn fan, but I would sort of lean to Rutgers here. I think we all know that Rutgers has a big home-field advantage. Remember the L'ville game last year on a Thur? Maybe Rutgers has just been paying for starting their season late. The Maryland game was like the season opener for them since they hadn't played anyone.

MyTurn2Raise · #42 10-15-2007, 08:54 AM

Illinois-Michigan will be weird IMO

Crowd will be really fired up--6 PM start (very unusual for a real game in these parts)

Michigan will hang alot of points on Illinois

The question is will Illinois' coaches be complete morons or adjust. Last week, Iowa overplayed the outside option to a ridiculous extent. Illinois coaches refused to pound the middle more (which they did about 4 times with success) out of the option formation and/or call reverses (which they did once for about 10 yards). In addition, the Illini coaches didn't trust Juice very much although he looked good passing on first and second downs. If they allow Michigan to overplay the outside option and not punish them elsewhere as a result, it will be a long day for Illinois.

Oh yeah, Michigan will get their points.

Ohhhhhh....not sure how much this weighs into things, but Michigan absolutely destroys Illinois. Destroys them over time. Since 1957, Illinois has only beaten Michigan once at home and tied them once. It's ugly. While Illinois has had some streaks of success verse Ohio State, Michigan is a 'helmet' game.

pirateboy · #43 10-15-2007, 11:56 AM

Illinois's offense is right in the same alley as Appy State and Oregon, so I expect Illinois to expose it yet again.

Ichabod1985 · #44 10-15-2007, 03:33 PM

USF -3 1 Unit
Louisville -3.5 1 Unit
N. Illinois +23.5 1 Unit
Missouri -3.5 2 Units
Ohio St -17 1 Unit
Stanford +10 1 Unit

iggymcfly · #45 10-15-2007, 04:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sagarin predictor may be skewed b/c it is crediting them for being good enough to beat the Auburn team that won @ Florida and Arkansas. In truth, they beat an Auburn team that was not playing very well and they needed overtime and a 5-0 turnover margin to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this, but really I think that the Auburn game was a lot less lucky than you'd think given the turnover margin. USF actually outgained Auburn 319-290 and in terms of YPP, only lost 4.1 to 4.0.

The reason is that the turnovers were counterbalanced by the 4 missed field goals for South Florida. The kicker, Alvarado, is a true sophomore who didn't get the starting job until the last month of the season last year, and likely wasn't used to such a high-pressure situation. Since that game though, he's 5/6 including 4/4 inside 40 yards and there's no reason to think he'd have a repeat of his Auburn performance against Rutgers.

I think USF's legitimately better than Auburn, Maryland, and Cincinnatti, and the only real question is whether the losses were just abberations for Rutgers where they had off games. RU is still #21 by Sagarin predictor and lost the TO battle 3-0 and 4-3 to Maryland and Cincinnatti respectively, so I do think there's some truth to that. It's just a question of how far you want to take it. I don't think I can bet the current line either way, but if it rises to USF -4 or something, I'll probably get on Rutgers.

Post-Oak · #46 10-15-2007, 04:43 PM

CINCI -9.5 (-110) @ pitt 1.65u to win 1.5u
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +17 (-110) @ clemson 1.65u/1.5u
florida @ KENTUCKY +7 (-110) 1.65u/1.5u
louisville @ CT +3.5 (-110) 1.1u/1.0u
usc @ ND +19 (-110) 1.1u/1.0u
north texas @ TROY -17.5 (-110) 1.1u/1.ou

Looking at 4 other games too.

YTD 8-2 +7.025u

iggymcfly · #47 10-15-2007, 05:02 PM

Have my first actual pick of the week. Not saying it's "the pick of the week" or anything, just that it's a pick and it's this week.

Ohio at Toledo PK (Risk 1.59u to win 1.5u)
Sagarin has Ohio as 3.5 points better on a neutral field, but Toledo has ridiculously large home/road splits as the Glass Bowl is one of the biggest home advantages for any mid-major team. Also, the fact that the teams are so evenly-matched also makes the home advantage worth more.

Matchups work in Toledo's favor as well as their rushing offense is their strength ranking 37th in the country while run defense is a weakness for Ohio ranking 104th. Finally, the Pinny lean is working in our favor as breakeven price at Pinny is Toledo -107 while it's -100 everywhere else.

bills217 · #48 10-15-2007, 06:09 PM

RB Rafael Little out at least two more weeks for Kentucky. Tough break, but we beat UGA last year and LSU this year without him, and are super-deep at RB.

At least makes the 7 slightly more understandable. I just hope Woodson doesn't have any rib problems from that last hit against LSU.

If Woodson were to be out, a correct line would be UF -21. UK's backup QBs are awful. I don't know if Woodson is the Heisman winner, but he is without a doubt college football's MVP.

Post-Oak · #49 10-16-2007, 12:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
CINCI -9.5 (-110) @ pitt 1.65u to win 1.5u
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +17 (-110) @ clemson 1.65u/1.5u
florida @ KENTUCKY +7 (-110) 1.65u/1.5u
louisville @ CT +3.5 (-110) 1.1u/1.0u
usc @ ND +19 (-110) 1.1u/1.0u
north texas @ TROY -17.5 (-110) 1.1u/1.ou

YTD 8-2 +7.025u

[/ QUOTE ]

nc state @ ECU -4 (-120) 1.8u/1.5u
FLA ATLANTIC -6.5 (-110) @ ul lafayette 1.65u/1.5u
colorado st @ UNLV -2.5 (-105) 1.05u/1.0u
BOWLING GREEN +5.5 (-105) @ kent 1.05u/1.0u

siccjay · #50 10-16-2007, 01:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
RB Rafael Little out at least two more weeks for Kentucky. Tough break, but we beat UGA last year and LSU this year without him, and are super-deep at RB.

At least makes the 7 slightly more understandable. I just hope Woodson doesn't have any rib problems from that last hit against LSU.

If Woodson were to be out, a correct line would be UF -21. UK's backup QBs are awful. I don't know if Woodson is the Heisman winner, but he is without a doubt college football's MVP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like Locke a lot. I don't think we lose much with Little out.