NL50 TT on J-high board line check

[Triggerle]

Villian is like 65/4 and will not lay down anything to a pre-flop 3bet. I figured that a 3bet would not be for value given his small range for raising pre-flop and just called, mainly to play for set value with UTG and CO also in the pot (they were both over 40% VPIP). Unfortunately they didn't come along.

The turn donk was intended as a blocking bet. I didn't want to call 3 streets so I hoped this would either slow him down or make him raise me so I can get out.

Any better line for this?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $97.75
UTG: $10
MP: $84.70
CO: $66.55
BTN: $82.80
SB: $49

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.50, MP folds, CO calls $0.50, <font color="red">BTN raises to $2.75</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $2.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($16.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $11</font>, BTN calls $11

River: ($38.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

[TheSalche]

Doesn't look awful. Could donk the flop, but turn bet on a safe card is fine. Probably makes him lose one street of value off a weak jack.

[Draidin]

i know you said he does not like to lay down, but with your hand and that board, betting the flop seems essential. Either by leading out or c/r. Lead the turn as well.

[Fathomer1977]

What's his aggression factor after the flop? Is he a calling station?
I would have bet the flop, maybe $4.5. Our turn bet would depend on how he's played postflop prior. Has he been calling down with AK? His range would seem to be QQ+, AK.

[Triggerle]

Oh, he will lay down stuff post-flop if he misses. A 65% VPIP who doesn't would be broke in a few orbits. Given that a 4% pfr is pretty much JJ+, AK, AQ my guess is he will never lay down a better hand on this board. This leads to the question if he has unimproved overs often enough for my turn bet to be correct.

[VPIP100]

Even against a 4% you have to 3-bet this because his range also includes AJ/99 type of hands (probably) and it plays easier postflop. Calling is not that bad tho, especially at 50NL.

Whats his AF? I think if its low you can safely check fold the turn UI. I hate donk-betting here, doesnt make sense since its better to check/call and check/fold river if he bets river again (since he might double barrel here with AQ/AK).

[thoman8r]

How large is your sample for these stats?

[Chomp]

I like Trig's thinking preflop:

Hand 0: 57.790% { 99+, AJs+, AKo } or {JJ+, AQ+}
Hand 1: 42.210% { TT }

So we are probably behind villain's range preflop, so calling hoping to play multiway for set value (or TP if needs be) seems to me a reasonable plan.

I originally wrote a post saying I liked turn, but I changed my mind. And then changed again. All I can think is that one of 4 things must happen on turn:

&gt; He folds, we win dead money, +$16
&gt; He raises, we fold, -$11
&gt; He calls with JJ+, we shut down, we lose -$11
&gt; He calls with whiffed overs, river blanks and goes c/c, we win +$38

Since there are more combos of whiffed overs and villain probably has stationy tendencies, it seems to me the turn bet must be good. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]