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#11
11-23-2007, 01:29 PM
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Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
it would be a hilarious fold for sure... even better a fold and show. If I know he has the flush should I fold? That's my real question.
I mean I appear to be getting it in here with a monster but in fact it's a losing push longterm right (vs a known flush)? If I fold I still have 40+ BB or so. 
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#12
11-23-2007, 01:30 PM
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Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
[ QUOTE ]
Good post, ty. I guess I can't really beat his range in this spot. That sucks tho as my hand looks pretty good! Sick fold and show option ;-) [/ QUOTE ] Yea, my thoughts exactly. Its a weird situation where your hand looks pretty damn good and, perhaps, there might be other spots where we'd be looking to felt this, but if you really analyze the situation here, its not that great IMHO.
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#13
11-23-2007, 01:32 PM
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Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
In position, to fold when against all but 3-4 hands you are drawing very, very live.. its just not good. A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Qx is the only hand that is really that bad for you here. Even against QJ you have 6 outs, obviously not a lot but against any flush/straight you are gold, and folding here against KQ would be a travesty. It's 50BB, this donk could have Q4:spades: here for all we know.
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#14
11-23-2007, 01:33 PM
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Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
[ QUOTE ]
it would be a hilarious fold for sure... even better a fold and show. If I know he has the flush should I fold? That's my real question. I mean I appear to be getting it in here with a monster but in fact it's a losing push longterm right (vs a known flush)? If I fold I still have 40+ BB or so. [/ QUOTE ] This is a simple math question. Just pokerstove it, it should come out to about 60/40 in his favor if he already has a flush. Could be even worse if he has the AQ with the A of diamonds, obviously. Clearly, (i think) being a 60/40 underdog is not a good spot to get it in here.
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#15
11-23-2007, 01:38 PM
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Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
[ QUOTE ]
In position, to fold when against all but 3-4 hands you are drawing very, very live.. its just not good. A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Qx is the only hand that is really that bad for you here. Even against QJ you have 6 outs, obviously not a lot but against any flush/straight you are gold, and folding here against KQ would be a travesty. It's 50BB, this donk could have Q4:spades: here for all we know. [/ QUOTE ] He could have Q4s here? I thought it would be correct to toss this out of his range. Did I miss something in the original post that would lead us to believe he could be pushing this hard with a hand like Q4 of spades? Also, even if you are right that we are drawing live, which I definitely agree is the most likely scenario here by far, we are still a 60/40 underdog to a hand like 23d, 45d, etc. My only point was that it could be even worse than that. Where do we disagree Xorbie?
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#16
11-23-2007, 01:41 PM
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Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
[ ] Full Stack
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#19
11-23-2007, 01:46 PM
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Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] He could have Q4s here? [/ QUOTE ] Because he's stupid. [/ QUOTE ] How do you know that? [/ QUOTE ] Because he has 50BB and limp/called UTG.
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#20
11-23-2007, 01:54 PM
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Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
This is 4-handed, you have a LAG image, 50BB effective stacks, you can't fold this. Either push like you did or call/call.
Call/call is a viable option because there is no scare cards for you to hit on the river.
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