200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop

QTip · #1 08-23-2007, 12:32 PM

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($198)
Hero ($258.40)
UTG ($132.20)
UTG+1 ($256.45)
MP1 ($89.10)
MP2 ($202)
MP3 ($194)
CO ($133.60)
Button ($287.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2, MP3 calls $2, CO calls $2, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero raises to $22, UTG calls $18, MP1 calls $18, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, SB folds.

Flop: ($70) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks

I mean..what else can I do, right?

bkar824 · #2 08-23-2007, 12:44 PM

They're all set mining. Take a stab at it, there is a really good chance they missed everything.

threads13 · #3 08-23-2007, 12:53 PM

Yum.

You have an SPR of 1 against MP1 and of about 2 against UTG. These guys are likely on paired hands or missed overs that they may now fold. If they just have a pair I think you can get them to fold it and you will draw out against it often enough to make the semi-bluff profitable. I think the play a bet since you will get so many folds and the pot is so large. I think the bet should be on the large side, say 50. You are definitely calling if MP1 raises. If UTG raises you will be getting good odds on a call and I think you can make it profitably.

effang · #4 08-23-2007, 01:05 PM

um...you have to bet this. you have shown super/or super weak strength PF. they can't call here w/ out a set or JJ+.

Octopus · #5 08-23-2007, 01:26 PM

Tell me about these opponents. Do you have a range for them to call a big raise like that?

QTip · #6 08-23-2007, 01:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me about these opponents. Do you have a range for them to call a big raise like that?

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They both were playing fairly tightly and raising pf very infrequently. Both passive postflop as well.

QTip · #7 08-23-2007, 01:35 PM

As far as a range, I thought pps were teh most likely, perhaps an AK

Octopus · #8 08-23-2007, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me about these opponents. Do you have a range for them to call a big raise like that?

[/ QUOTE ]

They both were playing fairly tightly and raising pf very infrequently. Both passive postflop as well.

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Well, that wasn't that helpful [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I am having trouble putting them on a range I like. Calling that big raise makes them likely too loose, but you say they are fairly tight. Suppose they have exactly JJ-22. (Too restrictive, I know.) Then we will lose money from here if we get all-in even if they will always fold without a set. Since I doubt TT+ would fold, it is even worse. They might even go ahead and call with any pair hoping you have your exact hand. (That play is consistent with that pre-flop call.) Now, if they sometimes have an ace or some other silliness, then we might make money by betting (even getting folds from those guys).

In short, I think it depends on what "fairly tight" means in the context of calling that pre-flop raise. There seem to be reasonable ranges which make checking reasonable.

Javanewt · #9 08-23-2007, 01:47 PM

I can understand your resistance to bet based on your read, but if you don't c-bet a flop like this, what do you c-bet?

Checking loses control of the hand unless you are planning to check/raise, which I would not do.

I'd bet about $50 and hope to win it there. Personally, I'd fold to a raise by either.

Turn depends on the card and who called me.

Mike Kelley · #10 08-23-2007, 01:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can understand your resistance to bet based on your read, but if you don't c-bet a flop like this, what do you c-bet?

Checking loses control of the hand unless you are planning to check/raise, which I would not do.

I'd bet about $50 and hope to win it there. Personally, I'd fold to a raise by either.

Turn depends on the card and who called me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree except for the fold part. I think you are pot committed if they raise unfortunately.